Sistemas técnicos de trading no mercado de ações brasileiro: testando a hipótese de eficiência de mercado em sua forma fraca e avaliando se a análise técnica agrega valor
The purpose of this job is to examine if the technical analysis may or may not add value to investment decisions. Through the development of confidence intervals, constructed using the technique of Bootstrap sample inference, and consistent with the null hypothesis of market efficiency in its weak form, we tested 4 technical systems of trading. More specifically, we obtained the results of each system applied to the original series of the assets. Then we compared these results with the average of the results obtained when the same systems were applied to 1000 simulated series, according to a random walk, of each asset. If markets are efficient in its weak form, there would be no reason for the results of the original series to be larger than those of the simulated series. The empirical results found here suggested that the systems tested were unable to anticipate the future using only past data. However, some of them have generated significant returns
|Date of creation:||29 Jun 2010|
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- Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Building Confidence Intervals with Block Bootstraps for the Variance Ratio Test of Predictability," Working Papers Series 151, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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- Blake LeBaron, 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," NBER Working Papers 5505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- LeBaron, B., 1996. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreing Exchange Intervention," Working papers 9445r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention," International Finance 9411002, EconWPA.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Jensen, Michael C & Bennington, George A, 1970. "Random Walks and Technical Theories: Some Additional Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 469-482, May. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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