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Building Confidence Intervals with Block Bootstraps for the Variance Ratio Test of Predictability

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  • Eduardo José Araújo Lima
  • Benjamin Miranda Tabak

Abstract

This paper compares different versions of the multiple variance ratio test based on bootstrap techniques for the construction of empirical distributions. It also analyzes the crucial issue of selecting optimal block sizes when block bootstrap procedures are used, by applying the methods developed by Hall et al. (1995) and by Politis and White (2004). By comparing the results of the different methods using Monte Carlo simulations, we conclude that methodologies using block bootstrap methods present better performance for the construction of empirical distributions of the variance ratio test. Moreover, the results are highly sensitive to methods employed to test the null hypothesis of random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo José Araújo Lima & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2007. "Building Confidence Intervals with Block Bootstraps for the Variance Ratio Test of Predictability," Working Papers Series 151, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:151
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    File URL: https://www.bcb.gov.br/content/publicacoes/WorkingPaperSeries/wps151.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Serafini, Daniel Guedine & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2010. "Sistemas técnicos de trading no mercado de ações brasileiro: testando a hipótese de eficiência de mercado em sua forma fraca e avaliando se a análise técnica agrega valor," Textos para discussão 260, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

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