IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fcr/wpaper/201903.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Obtaining implied volatilities from interest rate differentials: New York from 1900 to 1934

Author

Listed:
  • Miguel Cantillo Simon

    (Universidad de Costa Rica)

Abstract

This paper obtains monthly implied volatilities of the NYSE from 1900 to 1934 from interest rate differentials. The resulting implied volatilities were about 40% higher than their modern (2007-2019) counterparts, justifying an market risk premium almost twice as high as the current level.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Cantillo Simon, 2019. "Obtaining implied volatilities from interest rate differentials: New York from 1900 to 1934," Working Papers 201903, Universidad de Costa Rica, revised Nov 2019.
  • Handle: RePEc:fcr:wpaper:201903
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economia.ucr.ac.cr/sites/default/files/2021-10/EE%20UCR%20SDT%2019-03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1990. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Transitory Components of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 736-762, September.
    2. Thomas Gale Moore, 1966. "Stock Market Margin Requirements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 158-158.
    3. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    4. Garbade, Kenneth D., 2012. "Birth of a Market: The U.S. Treasury Securities Market from the Great War to the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262016370, December.
    5. Bordo,Michael D., 2005. "The Gold Standard and Related Regimes," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521022941, October.
    6. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    7. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    8. Young Ho Eom, 2004. "Structural Models of Corporate Bond Pricing: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 499-544.
    9. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    10. Merton, Robert C., 1977. "An analytic derivation of the cost of deposit insurance and loan guarantees An application of modern option pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-11, June.
    11. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    12. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    13. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    14. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    15. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. "Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
    16. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    17. Stephen W. Pruitt & K. S. Maurice Tse, 1996. "The Price, Volatility, Volume, and Liquidity Effects of Changes in Federal Reserve Margin Requirements on Both Marginable and Nonmarginable OTC Stocks," NBER Chapters, in: The Industrial Organization and Regulation of the Securities Industry, pages 317-358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    19. Marc Flandreau, 1997. "The Gold Standard in Theory and History," Post-Print hal-03416310, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    2. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    3. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    4. Zhou, Xinghua & Reesor, R. Mark, 2015. "Misrepresentation and capital structure: Quantifying the impact on corporate debt value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    5. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Zhijian (James) Huang & Yuchen Luo, 2016. "Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, May.
    7. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    9. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "The role of asset payouts in the estimation of default barriers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.
    11. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kim, Seoyoung, 2015. "Credit spreads with dynamic debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 121-140.
    12. Barsotti, Flavia & Viva, Luca Del, 2015. "Performance and determinants of the Merton structural model: Evidence from hedging coefficients," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 95-111.
    13. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    14. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    15. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    16. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    17. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    19. Liuren Wu & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2008. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of the Credit Spread Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1160-1175, June.
    20. Sheen X. Liu & Howard Qi & Chunchi Wu, 2006. "Personal Taxes, Endogenous Default, and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(6), pages 939-954, June.
    21. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Discussion Paper 2003-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fcr:wpaper:201903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Juan Manuel Castro (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feucrcr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.