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China's External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model


  • Lukas Vogel


The paper analyses China's external position in a multi-region macroeconomic model of the world economy. The model includes a portfolio structure and Forex intervention to proxy net/gross and government/non-government foreign asset positions, capital controls and exchange rate management in China. The selected set of transition and globalisation shocks replicates China's external position well, suggesting that it reflects capital exports driven by shifts in domestic saving supply, rather than shifts in foreign saving demand. The simulations also highlight the importance of effective capital controls for the viability of China's exchange rate management. Finally, the analysis suggests that enhanced flexibility of the RMB exchange rate could reduce China's net creditor position.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Vogel, 2010. "China's External Surplus: Simulations with a Global Macroeconomic Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 430, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0430

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    Cited by:

    1. Arslan, Yavuz & Kılınç, Mustafa & Turhan, M. İbrahim, 2015. "Global imbalances, current account rebalancing and exchange rate adjustments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-341.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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