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Climate ambitions for European aviation: where can sustainable aviation fuels bring us?

Author

Listed:
  • Inge Mayeres
  • Stefaan Proost
  • Ees Delhaye
  • Philippe Novelli
  • Sjaak Conijn
  • Inmaculada Gómez-Jiménez
  • Daniel Rivas-Brousse

Abstract

This paper assesses the costs of policies to promote the uptake of sustainable aviation fuels to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of aviation in the EU. Different policies for attaining a minimum sustainable aviation fuel share are assessed, taking into account sustainability requirements and the costs and potential of feedstock supply. The cost-effectiveness of these policies are compared to simpler CORSIA-type emission trading schemes, using a model that combines the demand functions for road, rail and maritime transport fuels, the supply functions of the related feedstocks as well as the environmental sustainability characteristics of the fuels. For aviation a distinction is made between fuel demand for intra-EU flights and for incoming and outbound EU flights. It is shown that policies that aim to achieve a minimum share of 3.5 % or 5.25 % sustainable aviation fuels by 2030 in the EU are 5 to 10 times more expensive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions than a simpler emission trading mechanism like CORSIA.

Suggested Citation

  • Inge Mayeres & Stefaan Proost & Ees Delhaye & Philippe Novelli & Sjaak Conijn & Inmaculada Gómez-Jiménez & Daniel Rivas-Brousse, 2021. "Climate ambitions for European aviation: where can sustainable aviation fuels bring us?," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven 671929, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    • Handle: RePEc:ete:ceswps:671929
    Note: paper number DPS 21.05
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    2. Chen, Ruotian & Yang, Hangjun & Wang, Kun & Jiang, Changmin, 2024. "Impacts of a sustainable aviation fuel mandate on airline competition — Full-service carrier vs. low-cost carrier," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Zheng, Shiyuan & Jiang, Changmin & Li, Ang, 2025. "Aviation e-fuel mandates: balancing average and minimum requirements for emission reduction," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    4. Xu, Yuchao & Zhang, Yahua & Deng, Xin & Lee, Seung-Yong & Wang, Kun & Li, Linbo, 2025. "Bibliometric analysis and literature review on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF): Economic and management perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 296-312.
    5. Proost, Stef, 2024. "Looking for winning policies to address the climate issue in EU-aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Yan, Zichun & Zhang, Jingjia & Wang, Zehan & Du, Zizhe, 2025. "Does international coordinated industrial policy stimulate regional low-carbon aviation development? Evidence from CORSIA and the APEC developing economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. He, Shawei & Dong, Kangyin & Hou, Meng & Song, Huan & Zhu, Ting & Li, Ang & Jiang, Changmin, 2025. "Fueling the future: A comparative analysis of sustainable aviation fuel pathways," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Stef Proost, 2026. "What role for aviation in climate policy?," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    9. Paul Bardon & Olivier Massol & Arthur Thomas, 2025. "Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels : Insights from decarbonization scenarios," Post-Print hal-04874217, HAL.
    10. Cantos-Sanchez, Pedro & Moner-Colonques, Rafael & Ruiz-Buforn, Alba & Sempere-Monerris, Jose J., 2024. "Should short-haul flights be banned? A simple transportation network analysis," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    11. Chen, Shangrong & Bravo-Melgarejo, Sai & Mongeau, Romain & Malavolti, Estelle, 2023. "Adopting and diffusing hydrogen technology in air transport: An evolutionary game theory approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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