IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/era/wpaper/dp-2013-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ikumo Isono

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

  • Satoru Kumagai

    (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDEJETRO))

Abstract

We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand

Suggested Citation

  • Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2013. "Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers DP-2013-08, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
  • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.eria.org/ERIA-DP-2013-08.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
    2. Ikumo Isono & Fukunari Kimura, 2011. "Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2011-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isono, Ikumo & Ishido, Hikari, 2016. "Service liberalization in Lao PDR," IDE Discussion Papers 559, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Toshihiro KUDO & Satoru KUMAGAI & So UMEZAKI, 2013. "Making Myanmar the Star Growth Performer in ASEAN in the Next Decade: A Proposal of Five Growth Strategies," Working Papers DP-2013-19, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Yoshikazu Kobayashi & Han Phoumin, 2019. "Cross-border Transport Facilitation in Inland ASEAN and the ASEAN Economic Community," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2017-rpr-18 edited by Yoshikazu Kobayashi & Han Phoumin, August.
    4. Peter Morgan & Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja & Fan Zhai, 2015. "Economic Implications of Deeper South Asian–Southeast Asian Integration: A CGE Approach," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(3), pages 63-81, Fall.
    5. Tadateru Hayashi & Satoru Kumagai & Sanchita Basu Das & Manbar Singh Khadka & Ikumo Isono & Souknilanh Keola & Kenmei Tsubota & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2023. "Analysis of the Economic Impact of Improved Connectivity in Nepal," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 5(2), pages 145-166, September.
    6. Kudo, Toshihiro & Kumagai, Satoru & Umezaki, So, 2013. "Five growth strategies for Myanmar : re-engagement with the global economy," IDE Discussion Papers 427, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Chen, Ching-mu & Kumagai, Satoru, 2016. "Economic impacts of the Kra Canal : an application of the automatic calculation of sea distances by a GIS," IDE Discussion Papers 568, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    8. Satoru Kumagai & Toshitaka Gokan & Kenmei Tsubota & Ikumo Isono & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War on the Asian Economy: An Applied Analysis of IDE-GSM," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 3(2), pages 127-143, September.
    9. Keola, Souknilanh & Kumagai, Satoru, 2016. "Measuring population mobility speed from space," IDE Discussion Papers 574, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    10. Hidetoshi Nishimura & Fukunari Kimura & Masahito Ambashi & Souknilanh Keola, . "Lao PDR at the Crossroads: Industrial Development Strategies 2016–2030," Books, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), number 2015-rpr-02 edited by Hidetoshi Nishimura & Fukunari Kimura & Masahito Ambashi & Souknilanh Keola, August.
    11. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai & Fukunari Kimura, 2012. "Agglomeration And Dispersion In China And Asean: A Geographical Simulation Analysis," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-16.
    12. Fukunari Kimura & Ayako Obashi, 2016. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 33-64, Springer.
    13. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2023. "ASEAN's Role in the Threat of Global Economic Decoupling: Implications from Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2022-10, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    14. Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Improved Connectivity for ASEAN: An Application of the Geographical Simulation Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 11(2), pages 290-306, July.
    15. Shahrokhi Shahraki, Hamed & Bachmann, Chris, 2019. "Integrating a Computable General Equilibrium model with empirically calibrated transportation models for border crossing investment analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Kumagai, Satoru & Gokan Toshitaka & Keola, Souknilanh, 2018. "Economic impacts of economic corridors in Mongolia : an application of IDE-GSM," IDE Discussion Papers 701, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Kumagai, Satoru & Isono, Ikumo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2018. "Economic impacts of high-speed rail between Kuala Lumpur and Singapore : an application of IDE-GSM," IDE Discussion Papers 700, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    18. Isono, Ikumo & Kumagai, Satoru, 2017. "Geographical simulation analysis of the development of Thilawa and Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 639, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    19. A S M Abdul Quium, 2019. "Transport Corridors for Wider Socio–Economic Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-23, September.
    20. Kudo, Toshihiro & Kumagai, Satoru, 2012. "Two-polar growth strategy in Myanmar : seeking "high" and "balanced" development," IDE Discussion Papers 371, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thailand; flood; new economic geography; computable general equilibrium models; disaster management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ranti Amelia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eriadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.