Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis
We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand
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- Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2012.
"Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia,"
IDE Discussion Papers
369, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
- Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
- Kenmei Tsubota & Satoru Kumagai & Kazunobu Hayakawa & Ikumo Isono & Souknilanh Keola, 2013. "Geographical Simulation Analysis for Logistics Enhancement in Asia," EcoMod2013 5006, EcoMod.
- Ikumo Isono & Fukunari Kimura, 2011. "Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2011-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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