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Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ikumo Isono

    (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia)

  • Satoru Kumagai

    (Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDEJETRO))

Abstract

We discuss the long-run economic impact of natural disasters on the countries concerned by examining the case of Thai flooding in 2011. If the damage caused by disasters is really serious, industries will move out from the countries in question, and this outflow leads to a negative impact on the national economies in the long run. By using IDE/ERIA-GSM and utilizing short-run forecast for the basic setting, we estimate the seriousness of the flooding in terms of the long-term economic performance. Simulation results show that negative long-run impacts of the flood will be moderate, because many companies’ first reaction to the flood was to seek possible relocation of their production sites within Thailand

Suggested Citation

  • Ikumo Isono & Satoru Kumagai, 2013. "Long-run Economic Impacts of Thai Flooding: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers DP-2013-08, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    • Handle: RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2013-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
    2. Ikumo Isono & Fukunari Kimura, 2011. "Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis," Working Papers PB-2011-03, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Thailand; flood; new economic geography; computable general equilibrium models; disaster management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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