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Update on the Venezuelan Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Weisbrot
  • Rebecca Ray

Abstract

This paper examines recent economic data, including the most recent data released the third week of August 2010, in an attempt to evaluate the Venezuelan economy's prospects in the foreseeable future. It finds that the Venezuelan economy, which went into recession in the first quarter of 2009 after six years of record economic growth, is now most likely in recovery, and that the 2009 recession has probably ended. This is based on seasonally adjusted quarterly data, which show that the Venezuelan economy grew by an estimated 5.2 percent in the second quarter of 2010, on an annualized basis. The paper then considers possibilities and arguments that the Venezuelan economy will remain mired in recession or stagnation, and/or is doomed to long term decline. It finds that although there are a number of analysts who are predicting that the Venezuelan economy is on the verge of inevitable (and long-anticipated) ruin, there is nothing in the recent data – or that of the last decade – to indicate that this is true.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Weisbrot & Rebecca Ray, 2010. "Update on the Venezuelan Economy," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2010-20, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  • Handle: RePEc:epo:papers:2010-20
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/venezuela-2010-09.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Weisbrot & Rebecca Ray & Luis Sandoval, 2009. "The Chávez Administration at 10 Years: The Economy and Social Indicators," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2009-04, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Pistola de aluguel
      by "O" Anonimo in A Mão Visível on 2010-09-21 23:28:00

    Citations

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    as


    Cited by:

    1. Özgür Orhangazi, 2014. "Contours of Alternative Policy Making in Venezuela," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 221-240, June.
    2. Mark Weisbrot, 2013. "Economic growth: the great slowdown (1980-2000) and recovery (2000-2010)," Chapters, in: Jeannette Wicks-Lim & Robert Pollin (ed.), Capitalism on Trial, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    venezuela; foreign exchange; economy;

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F - International Economics
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • I - Health, Education, and Welfare
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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