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Long-term forecast for the Dutch economy

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  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F.
  • de Groot, E.A.

Abstract

A strong link exists between Randstad's temporary sta±ng services and Dutch GDP. The two annual series share a stochastic trend and two long-swing deterministic cycles. Causality appears to run from temporary sta±ng to GDP and not vice versa. These features are taken aboard in a simple forecasting model for Dutch GDP growth for the period 2005-2015. The forecasts suggest growth rates around 2 per cent, with a dip to be expected around 2012-2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & de Groot, E.A., 2006. "Long-term forecast for the Dutch economy," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:7246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Groot, E.A. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2005. "Real time estimates of GDP growth," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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