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A multi-layered risk estimation routine for strategic planning and operations for the maritime industry

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  • Knapp, S.
  • Vander Hoorn, S.

Abstract

Maritime regulators and port authorities require the ability to predict risk exposure for strategic planning aspects to optimize asset allocation, mitigate and prevent incidents. This article builds on previous work to develop the strategic planning component and introduces the concept of a multilayered risk estimation framework (MLREF) for strategic planning and operations. The framework accounts for most of the risk factors such as ship specific risk, vessel traffic densities and met ocean conditions and allows the integration of the effect of risk control option and a location specific spatial rate ratio to allow for micro level risk assessments. Both, the macro (eg. covering larger geographic areas or EEZ) and micro level application (eg. passage way, particular route of interest) of MLREF was tested via a pilot study for the Australian region using a comprehensive and unique combination of dataset. The underlying routine towards the development of a strategic planning tool was developed and tested in R. Applications of the layers for the operational part such as an automated alert system and sources of uncertainties for risk assessments in general are described and discussed along with future developments and improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Knapp, S. & Vander Hoorn, S., 2017. "A multi-layered risk estimation routine for strategic planning and operations for the maritime industry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2017-02, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:100160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Knapp, S. & Heij, C., 2016. "Evaluation of total risk exposure and insurance premiums in the maritime industry," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI-1661, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Heij, C. & Knapp, S., 2011. "Risk evaluation methods at individual ship and company level," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2011-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    3. Vander Hoorn, Stephen & Knapp, Sabine, 2015. "A multi-layered risk exposure assessment approach for the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 21-33.
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