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Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast, and policy implications

Author

Listed:
  • Gu, Lei
  • Zhang, Yi-Xin
  • Wang, Jian-Zhou
  • Chen, Gina
  • Battye, Hugh

Abstract

This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China, most of which are classified into rural household production, agriculture-based engineering production, and industry-based engineering production. To evaluate the future biogas production of China, five models including the Hubbert model, the Weibull model, the generalized Weng model, the H–C–Z model, and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country. It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources. The simulation results reveal that China’s total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years, mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production, and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department. In addition, China’s biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future. This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Lei & Zhang, Yi-Xin & Wang, Jian-Zhou & Chen, Gina & Battye, Hugh, 2016. "Where is the future of China’s biogas? Review, forecast, and policy implications," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67274, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:67274
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    Cited by:

    1. Xue, Shengrong & Song, Jinghui & Wang, Xiaojiao & Shang, Zezhou & Sheng, Chenjing & Li, Chongyuan & Zhu, Yufan & Liu, Jingyu, 2020. "A systematic comparison of biogas development and related policies between China and Europe and corresponding insights," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Andante Hadi Pandyaswargo & Premakumara Jagath Dickella Gamaralalage & Chen Liu & Michael Knaus & Hiroshi Onoda & Faezeh Mahichi & Yanghui Guo, 2019. "Challenges and an Implementation Framework for Sustainable Municipal Organic Waste Management Using Biogas Technology in Emerging Asian Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-27, November.
    3. Chen, Qiu & Liu, Tianbiao, 2017. "Biogas system in rural China: Upgrading from decentralized to centralized?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 933-944.
    4. Zheng, Lei & Cheng, Shikun & Han, Yanzhao & Wang, Min & Xiang, Yue & Guo, Jiali & Cai, Di & Mang, Heinz-Peter & Dong, Taili & Li, Zifu & Yan, Zhengxu & Men, Yu, 2020. "Bio-natural gas industry in China: Current status and development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Islam, KM Nazmul & Sarker, Tapan & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Atri, Anashuwa Chowdhury & Alam, Mohammad Shafiul, 2021. "Renewable energy generation from livestock waste for a sustainable circular economy in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Zamri, M.F.M.A. & Hasmady, Saiful & Akhiar, Afifi & Ideris, Fazril & Shamsuddin, A.H. & Mofijur, M. & Fattah, I. M. Rizwanul & Mahlia, T.M.I., 2021. "A comprehensive review on anaerobic digestion of organic fraction of municipal solid waste," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Roozbeh Feiz & Jonas Ammenberg & Annika Björn & Yufang Guo & Magnus Karlsson & Yonghui Liu & Yuxian Liu & Laura Shizue Moriga Masuda & Alex Enrich-Prast & Harald Rohracher & Kristina Trygg & Sepehr Sh, 2019. "Biogas Potential for Improved Sustainability in Guangzhou, China—A Study Focusing on Food Waste on Xiaoguwei Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, March.
    8. Ibnu Budiman & Mattijs Smits, 2020. "How Do Configuration Shifts in Fragmented Energy Governance Affect Policy Output? A Case Study of Changing Biogas Regimes in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Xue, Shengrong & Zhang, Siqi & Wang, Ying & Wang, Yanbo & Song, Jinghui & Lyu, Xingang & Wang, Xiaojiao & Yang, Gaihe, 2022. "What can we learn from the experience of European countries in biomethane industry: Taking China as an example?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    biogas production; China; temporal-spatial-forecast; policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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