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Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil

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  • Batyra, Ewa
  • Leone, Tiziana
  • Myrskylä, Mikko

Abstract

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)—a measure free from tempo distortions—and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7–0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Batyra, Ewa & Leone, Tiziana & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2022. "Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 116627, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:116627
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort fertility; forecasting; Brazil; education; census data; IPUMS; 1729185; UK’s Economic and Social Research Council Doctoral Studentship (ES/ J500070/1).; Mikko Myrskylä was supported by an ERC grant 336475 (COSTPOST) and by the Strategic Research Council (SRC); FLUX consortium: decision numbers 345130 and 345131;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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