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Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Pardo

    (Universidad de la República)

  • Nicolás Sacco

    (CONICET)

  • Enrique Acosta

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

  • Andrés Castro

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

The literature on fertility trends in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 highlights reductions in higher-order births and the postponement of first births as key drivers of fertility decline. However, the factors sustaining the transition to low and very low fertility levels during 2011–2020 remain underexplored. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the main drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and their implications for future fertility patterns. Using period-, age-, and order-specific rates, we assess their contributions to changes in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region’s population, and the Latinx populations in the United States. Our analysis reveals that most decline (49–85%) is concentrated among the youngest age groups, suggesting that first-birth postponement is the primary underlying mechanism. We contend that, while a slight fertility recovery may occur in the coming decade, very low or even lowest-low fertility levels are possible to persist.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Pardo & Nicolás Sacco & Enrique Acosta & Andrés Castro, 2025. "Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 44(1), pages 1-10, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:poprpr:v:44:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11113-024-09934-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11113-024-09934-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Everton E. C. Lima & Kryštof Zeman & Tomáš Sobotka & Mathias Nathan & Ruben Castro, 2018. "The Emergence of Bimodal Fertility Profiles in Latin America," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(4), pages 723-743, December.
    2. repec:cai:poeine:pope_605_0519 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Luis Rosero-Bixby & Teresa Martín García & Teresa Castro Martín, 2009. "Is Latin America starting to retreat from early and universal childbearing?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(9), pages 169-194.
    4. Marion Burkimsher, 2017. "Evolution of the shape of the fertility curve: Why might some countries develop a bimodal curve?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(11), pages 295-324.
    5. Andrés Felipe Castro Torres, 2021. "Analysis of Latin American Fertility in Terms of Probable Social Classes," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 297-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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