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European Electricity and interrelated Futures Markets: A cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Analysis


  • Andreas Fritz

    () (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)


This study investigates the price formation of electricity futures at the European Energy Exchange (EEX) and aims at understanding the price formation in connection with interrelated futures markets such as ARA coal at the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), natural gas at the Title Transfer Exchange (TTF) and CO2 allowances. Results obtained from using a vector error correction model suggest that price formation in the futures markets for electricity can be explained to some extent fundamentally. Electricity futures price dynamics show dependency on marginal generation costs. A stable long†term equilibrium between electricity futures prices and marginal costs, namely prices of hard coal, natural gas and CO2 allowances could be found. An impulse response analysis reveals that in the longer run the electricity futures price converge to marginal costs of a hard coal power plant. This is useful information for electric utilities and regulatory bodies since futures markets serve several purposes for energy utilities, including price discovery, hedging, valuation and trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Fritz, 2012. "European Electricity and interrelated Futures Markets: A cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Analysis," EWL Working Papers 1205, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:1205

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    2. Dempster, M.A.H. & Medova, Elena & Tang, Ke, 2008. "Long term spread option valuation and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2530-2540, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Thoenes, 2014. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).

    More about this item


    Energy; Cointegration; Electricity Market; Futures Market;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General


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