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Convergence of Electricity Wholesale Prices in Europe?: A Kalman Filter Approach

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  • Georg Zachmann

Abstract

This study tests the hypothesis that the ongoing restructuring process in the European electricity sector, as well as market participants' adaptation to the new legal framework, have caused electricity wholesale day-ahead prices to converge towards arbitrage freeness. Using hourly cross-border capacity auction results at the Dutch-German and at the Danish-German border for the years 2002 to 2004, and the respective spot prices. We estimate a time-varying coefficient model based on the law of one price (LOP). The results of these estimations are used to calculate the speed of convergence towards the LOP. While the German-Dutch prices and the German-West Danish prices are clearly developing towards arbitrage freeness, the German and East Danish prices do not exhibit significant convergence.

Suggested Citation

  • Georg Zachmann, 2005. "Convergence of Electricity Wholesale Prices in Europe?: A Kalman Filter Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 512, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp512
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2009. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3566-3579, September.
    2. Qiang Chen & Anush Balian & Mykola Kyzym & Tetiana Salashenko & Inna Gryshova & Viktoriia Khaustova, 2021. "Electricity Markets Instability: Causes of Price Dispersion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-19, November.
    3. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti & Fabio Baldi, 2006. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Europe," Working Papers 20061001, Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca, Dipartimento di Statistica.
    4. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Electricity market crisis in Europe and cross border price effects: A quantile return connectedness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "EU electricity market integration and cross-country convergence in residential and industrial end-user prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Joseph Nyangon & John Byrne & Job Taminiau, 2017. "An assessment of price convergence between natural gas and solar photovoltaic in the U.S. electricity market," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(3), May.
    7. Bosco, Bruno & Parisio, Lucia & Pelagatti, Matteo & Baldi, Fabio, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," International Energy Markets Working Papers 7438, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Finon, Dominique & Romano, Elliot, 2009. "Electricity market integration: Redistribution effect versus resource reallocation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2977-2985, August.
    9. Cassetta, Ernesto & Nava, Consuelo R. & Zoia, Maria Grazia, 2022. "A three-step procedure to investigate the convergence of electricity and natural gas prices in the European Union," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Renou-Maissant, Patricia, 2012. "Toward the integration of European natural gas markets:A time-varying approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 779-790.
    11. Matteo Pelagatti & Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Fabio Baldi, 2007. "A Robust Multivariate Long Run Analysis of European Electricity Prices," Working Papers 2007.103, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Derek Bunn & Georg Zachmann, 2010. "Inefficient arbitrage in inter-regional electricity transmission," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 243-265, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity prices; European integration; Time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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