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Harvesting effect and extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Vinod Joseph Kannankeril Joseph

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Risto Conte Keivabu

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Raya Muttarak
  • Emilio Zagheni

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Stefano Mazzuco

Abstract

It is well-established that deaths peak in winter and show throughs in summer. However, it remains unclear how mortality patterns will unfold as the climate warms, bringing fewer cold days and more hot days. One concern is “harvesting,” where a short-term surge in deaths among the most vulnerable people is then followed by a period with fewer deaths than usual because those individuals would have died soon anyway. Under global warming, it is possible that higher mortality rates in summer will result not only from an increase in extreme heat events but also from a seasonal shift in excess deaths that would have previously occurred in winter. Combining mortality data from the Italian Statistical Office with temperature data from the Copernicus Data Store for Italy at the provincial level from 2011 to 2019, we employ Poisson regression models to estimate the effects of temperature extremes on mortality among individuals aged 60 and above. The results reveal that temperatures outside the comfort zone, both lower and higher, are associated with increased monthly mortality rates, with the strongest effects seen in the most extreme temperature ranges. We find evidence of a harvesting effect, particularly for moderately warm days (≥ 85th to

Suggested Citation

  • Vinod Joseph Kannankeril Joseph & Risto Conte Keivabu & Raya Muttarak & Emilio Zagheni & Stefano Mazzuco, 2025. "Harvesting effect and extreme temperature-related mortality in Italy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2025-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-018
    DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2025-018
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Italy; climate; mortality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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