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Global Population Exposure to Extreme Temperatures and Disease Burden

Author

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  • Yajie Du

    (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    National Institute of Health Data Science of China, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Ming Jing

    (School of Computer Science and Technology, Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Science), Jinan 250353, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Chunyu Lu

    (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    National Institute of Health Data Science of China, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Jingru Zong

    (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    National Institute of Health Data Science of China, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Lingli Wang

    (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    National Institute of Health Data Science of China, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

  • Qing Wang

    (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China
    National Institute of Health Data Science of China, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China)

Abstract

The frequency and duration of extreme temperature events continues to increase worldwide. However, the scale of population exposure and its quantitative relationship with health risks remains unknown on a global scale, limiting our ability to identify policy priorities in response to climate change. Based on data from 171 countries between 2010 and 2019, this study estimated the exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme temperatures, and their contemporary and lag associations with disease burden attributed to non-optimal temperatures. Fixed-effects models and dynamic panel models were applied. Increased vulnerable population exposure to extreme temperatures had adverse contemporary effects on the burden of disease attributed to non-optimal temperature. Health risks stemming from extreme cold could accumulate to a greater extent, exhibiting a larger lag effect. Population exposure to extreme cold was mainly distributed in high-income countries, while extreme heat occurred more in low-income and middle-income countries. However, the association between population exposure to extreme cold and burden of disease was much stronger in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries, whereas the effect size of population exposure to extreme heat was similar. Our study highlighted that differential strategies should be determined and implemented according to the characteristics in different countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Yajie Du & Ming Jing & Chunyu Lu & Jingru Zong & Lingli Wang & Qing Wang, 2022. "Global Population Exposure to Extreme Temperatures and Disease Burden," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-12, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:19:y:2022:i:20:p:13288-:d:942846
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Julita Gil Cuesta & Joris Adriaan Frank Van Loenhout & Maria Da Conceição Colaço & Debarati Guha-Sapir, 2017. "General Population Knowledge about Extreme Heat: A Cross-Sectional Survey in Lisbon and Madrid," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Jonathan Chambers, 2020. "Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 539-558, November.
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