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Challenging the universality of heatwave definitions: gridded temperature discrepancies across climate regions

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  • Erin Coughlan de Perez

    (Tufts University
    Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Julie Arrighi

    (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre)

  • Joalane Marunye

    (National University of Lesotho)

Abstract

As global studies of climate change depict increasingly dire outcomes of extreme heat, there is an urgent need to understand the appropriateness of heatwave definitions and temperature datasets in different parts of the world. We carry out an intercomparison of the CHIRTS gridded station-satellite temperature dataset with three reanalysis products, ERA5, NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, and MERRA2, to assess biases in the absolute value of extreme heat events and the distribution of extreme events. We find close agreement between all four datasets in the magnitude and distribution of extreme temperatures, with a cold bias in the reanalyses over mountainous areas. However, there is little to no agreement between datasets on the timing of extreme heat events in the tropics, and the datasets do not even agree on which month is the hottest month climatologically in these regions. Second, we compare how the four datasets represent the frequency and timing of extreme heat events, using two different types of heatwave definitions: 5-day duration-based extremes and extreme temperature-humidity combinations (heat index). In the case of 5-day heatwaves, there are almost zero events recorded historically in tropical regions. In contrast, high absolute values of the heat index are most common in dry climates, likely due to the dominance of high temperature spikes in these regions, and high heat index events also occur in temperate and tropical regions. There is little agreement between datasets, however, on when these extreme heat index events have happened historically in the tropics. Given these results, we highlight the need for locally developed heatwave metrics for different parts of the world, and we urge against the use of a single heatwave definition in global studies. We also recommend that any studies assessing heat-health relationships in tropical regions beware of the lack of agreement between observational and reanalysis datasets and compare results from different gridded dataset products to estimate uncertainty in heat-health relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Erin Coughlan de Perez & Julie Arrighi & Joalane Marunye, 2023. "Challenging the universality of heatwave definitions: gridded temperature discrepancies across climate regions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(12), pages 1-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:12:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03641-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03641-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dae II Jeong & Alex J. Cannon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Influences of atmospheric blocking on North American summer heatwaves in a changing climate: a comparison of two Canadian Earth system model large ensembles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Vikki Thompson & Dann Mitchell & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Matthew Collins & Nicholas J. Leach & Julia M. Slingo, 2023. "The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Luke J. Harrington & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2020. "Reconciling theory with the reality of African heatwaves," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 796-798, September.
    4. Jonathan Chambers, 2020. "Global and cross-country analysis of exposure of vulnerable populations to heatwaves from 1980 to 2018," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 539-558, November.
    5. Tiffany Smith & Benjamin Zaitchik & Julia Gohlke, 2013. "Heat waves in the United States: definitions, patterns and trends," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 811-825, June.
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