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Sovereign Risk in International Bond Markets and Nonconvergence

Author

Listed:
  • Volker Böhm
  • George Vachadze

Abstract

The paper analyzes the consequences of joining markets of government discount bonds between identical economies when, in each country, there exists a positive probability of the government to default. In autarky such economies of overlapping generations of consumers with capital accumulation converge to a unique positive steady state under certain conditions. When two identical economies of this type open their markets for bonds to the consumers of the other country, diversification in portfolio demand by consumers leads to the existence of a world equilibrium with a uniform bond price in every period. Under such circumstances a symmetric stationary world equilibrium with lower risk per country exists, supported by the same level of capital and income as under autarky. However, due to the interaction of dynamic spill over effects between the bond market and the domestic markets for capital investment, the symmetric steady state may become unstable and stable asymmetric steady states appear, implying symmetry breaking in the sense of Matsuyama (2004). The paper identifies a set of assumptions on consumer and production characteristics together with a range of values of the government’s default parameters, such that instability occurs and asymmetric steady states become locally stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Böhm & George Vachadze, 2009. "Sovereign Risk in International Bond Markets and Nonconvergence," DEGIT Conference Papers c014_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  • Handle: RePEc:deg:conpap:c014_034
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    File URL: http://degit.sam.sdu.dk/papers/degit_14/c014_034.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Krugman & Anthony J. Venables, 1995. "Globalization and the Inequality of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 857-880.
    2. repec:hhs:iuiwop:430 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital accumulation; sovereign risk; international bond markets; non convergence; symmetry-breaking;

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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