IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cuf/wpaper/788.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Institutions and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Unified Lucas-Tree and Affine Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Heng-fu Zou

Abstract

This paper develops a unifed theoretical framework that integrates institutional quality into affine term structure models of interest rates. Building on a Lucas-tree economy with endogenous institutional capital, we derive the stochastic discount factor and show that zero-coupon bond prices admit an exponential-affine form. Using the Feynman-Kac representation, we obtain explicit Riccati equations and closed-form solutions under Vasicek- and CIR-type institutional dynamics. The analysis reveals how institutional persistence, mean reversion, and volatility affect the slope and curvature of the yield curve, generating distinct term premia across maturities. Comparative statics highlight that stronger and more stable institutions lower risk premia, while fragile or volatile institutions amplify borrowing costs. The framework bridges political economy and asset pricing, showing that institutional reforms not only promote long-run growth but also shape sovereign debt markets, financial development, and macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institutions and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Unified Lucas-Tree and Affine Pricing," CEMA Working Papers 788, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://down.aefweb.net/WorkingPapers/w788.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breeden, Douglas T., 1979. "An intertemporal asset pricing model with stochastic consumption and investment opportunities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 265-296, September.
    2. Bryan Kelly & Ľuboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2016. "The Price of Political Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from the Option Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2417-2480, October.
    3. Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institution-Based Asset Pricing: A Generalization of Consumption- and Production-Based Models," CEMA Working Papers 765, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    4. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    5. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "A Survey of Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 737-783, June.
    6. Barzel,Yoram, 1997. "Economic Analysis of Property Rights," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521597135, February.
    7. Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institutional Volatility and the Equity Premium Puzzle: A Dynamic Asset Pricing Framework for OECD Economies," CEMA Working Papers 775, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institutions and Asset Returns," CEMA Working Papers 778, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    2. Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institutional Volatility and the Equity Premium Puzzle: A Dynamic Asset Pricing Framework for OECD Economies," CEMA Working Papers 775, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    3. Heng-fu Zou, 2025. "Institutional Disaster Risk and Asset Pricing: A Unified Framework Integrating Rare Events and Endogenous Political Shocks," CEMA Working Papers 777, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    4. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
    5. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    6. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    7. Suresh M. Sundaresan, 2000. "Continuous‐Time Methods in Finance: A Review and an Assessment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1569-1622, August.
    8. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    9. Romain Deguest & Lionel Martellini & Vincent Milhau, 2018. "A Reinterpretation of the Optimal Demand for Risky Assets in Fund Separation Theorems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4333-4347, September.
    10. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 77232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5374 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Qixin Zhan & Junzhu Zhao & Heng-Fu Zou, 2025. "The Rule-of-Law Capital,Growth, and Development," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 26(2), pages 667-705, November.
    14. Elfeituri, Hatem, 2022. "Banking stability, institutional quality, market concentration, competition and political conflict in MENA," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Rui Albuquerue & Neng Wang, 2008. "Agency Conflicts, Investment, and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 1-40, February.
    16. Mahoney, Joseph T., 2012. "Towards a Stakeholder Theory of Strategic Management," Working Papers 12-0100, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, College of Business.
    17. Dimson, Elroy & Mussavian, Massoud, 1999. "Three centuries of asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1745-1769, December.
    18. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    19. Ciprian Necula, 2008. "A Two-Country Discontinuous General Equilibrium Model," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 23, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB.
    20. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    21. Eric Djeutcha & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2024. "Pricing for a vulnerable bull spread options using a mixed modified fractional Hull–White–Vasicek model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 334(1), pages 101-131, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cuf:wpaper:788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Qiang Gao (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emcufcn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.