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Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking system in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Trust R. Mpofu

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

  • Eftychia Nikolaidou

    (School of Economics, University of Cape Town)

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants of credit risk in the banking system of 22 Sub-Saharan African economies. We measure credit risk as the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans (NPLs) and employ a dynamic panel data approach over the period 2000-2016. Using a variety of specifications, the results show that an increase in real GDP growth rate has a statistically and economically significant reducing effect on the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans. Furthermore, inflation rate, domestic credit to private sector by banks as a percent of GDP, trade openness, VIX as a proxy of global volatility, and the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, all have positive and significant impact on NPLs.

Suggested Citation

  • Trust R. Mpofu & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2018. "Determinants of Credit Risk in the Banking system in Sub-Saharan Africa," School of Economics Macroeconomic Discussion Paper Series 2018-04, School of Economics, University of Cape Town.
    • Handle: RePEc:ctn:dpaper:2018-04
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    Cited by:

    1. Iakimenko, Irina & Semenova, Maria & Zimin, Eugenii, 2022. "The more the better? Information sharing and credit risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Odunayo Magret Olarewaju, 2020. "Investigating the factors affecting nonperforming loans in commercial banks: The case of African lower middle‐income countries," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(4), pages 744-757, December.
    3. Uquillas, Adriana & Tonato, Ronny, 2022. "Inter-portfolio credit risk contagion including macroeconomic and financial factors: A case study for Ecuador," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 299-320.
    4. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Andreia Araújo & Filipe Portela & Filipe Alvelos & Saulo Ruiz, 2022. "Optimization of the System of Allocation of Overdue Loans in a Sub-Saharan Africa Microfinance Institution," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Obiora, Sandra Chukwudumebi & Zeng, Yong & Li, Qiang & Liu, Hao & Adjei, Peter Darko & Csordas, Tamas, 2022. "The effect of economic growth on banking system performance: An interregional and comparative study of Sub-Saharan Africa and developed economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(1).
    7. Rim Boussaada & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is there a threshold effect in the liquidity risk–non‐performing loans relationship? A PSTR approach for MENA banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1886-1898, April.
    8. Michael Adusei & Ngozi Adeleye & Beatrice Sarpong‐Danquah, 2022. "Legal cost of contract enforcement and nonperforming loans: Is credit information sharing relevant?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2501-2514, September.
    9. Mehmet Levent Erdas & Zeynep Ezanoglu, 2022. "How Do Bank-Specific Factors Impact Non-Performing Loans: Evidence from G20 Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 97-122.
    10. Asif, Zainab & Chinzara, Zivanemoyo & Lahiri, Radhika, 2023. "The role of risk and institutions in the adoption and diffusion of technologies: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 16-33.
    11. Ling, Coco Siu Yin, 2019. "Financial risk and its performance: A study on Apollo Food Holdings Berhad in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 97889, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2019.
    12. Faridah Najuna Misman & Wahida Ahmad & Noor Sufiawati Khairani & Nur Hazimah Amran, 2020. "Credit Risk, Islamic Contracts and Ownership Status: Evidence From Malaysian Islamic Banks," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(3), pages 106-114, June.
    13. Djebali, Nesrine & Zaghdoudi, Khemais, 2020. "Threshold effects of liquidity risk and credit risk on bank stability in the MENA region," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1049-1063.

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