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Empirical distributions of stock returns: european securities markets, 1990-95

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  • Aparicio, Felipe M.
  • Estrada, Javier

Abstract

The assumption that daily stock returns are normally distributed has long been disputed by the data. In this article we test (and clearly reject) the normality assumption using time series of daily stock returns for thirteen European securities markets. More importantly, we fit to the data four alternative specifications, find overall support for the scaled-t distribution (and partial support for a mixture of two Normal distributions), and quantify the magnitude of the error that stems from predicting the probability of obtaining returns in specified intervals by using the Normal distribution. We conclude by arguing that normality may be a plausible assumption for monthly (but not for daily) stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Aparicio, Felipe M. & Estrada, Javier, 1997. "Empirical distributions of stock returns: european securities markets, 1990-95," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 7054, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wbrepe:7054
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-280, April.
    2. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-155, January.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    4. Estrada, Javier, 1997. "Random walks and the temporal dimension of risk," DEE - Working Papers. Business Economics. WB 7040, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stella Kanellopoulou & Epaminondas Panas, 2008. "Empirical distributions of stock returns: Paris stock market, 1980-2003," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(16), pages 1289-1302.
    2. David Ashton & Mark Tippett, 2006. "Mean Reversion and the Distribution of United Kingdom Stock Index Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1586-1609.
    3. Robiyanto Robiyanto & Rihfenti Ernayani & Rendi Susiswo Ismail, 2019. "Formulation Of A Dynamic Portfolio With Stocks And Fixed-Income Instruments In The Indonesian Capital Market," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 10(1).
    4. David Ashton & Mark Tippett, 2006. "Mean Reversion and the Distribution of United Kingdom Stock Index Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1586-1609, November.

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    Keywords

    Time series of stock returns;

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