Non-linear dependence and conditional heteroscedasticity in stock returns evidence from the norwegian thinly traded equity market
The paper investigates the presence of non-linear dependencies in stock returns for the Norwegian equity market as it is very difficult to interpret the unconditional distribution of stock returns and its economic implications if the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Standard tests of non-linear dependence give strong evidence for the presence of non-linearity in raw returns. Modelling non-linear dependence must distinguish between models that are non-linear in mean and hence depart from the Martingale hypothesis, and models that are non-linear in variance and hence depart from independence but not from the Martingale hypothesis. Therefore, three non-linear models of asset returns are formulated applying ARMA-GARCH specifications for the conditional mean and variance equations. The paper goes on to answer which model has the necessary characteristics that are sufficient to account for most of the non-linear dependence. In the Norwegian equity market most of the non-linear dependence seems to be conditional heteroscedasticity. However, the most thinly traded assets still report significant non-linear dependence for all non-linear specifications. These results imply that the independence hypothesis can be rejected for all assets, portfolios and indices. Moreover, for thinly traded assets the Martingale hypothesis can also be rejected. The economic implications from the unconditional distributions of thinly traded assets are therefore very difficult to interpret and are unfamiliar territory for those who are accustomed to thinking analytically, intuitively and linearly.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/REJF20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1990.
"Temporal Aggregation Of Garch Processes,"
9066, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Discussion Paper 1992-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Discussion Paper 1990-66, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal Aggregation of Garch Processes," Papers 9240, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Persistence in Conditional Variances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 167-86, January.
- Scheinkman, Jose A, 1990. "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 33-48, Supplemen.
- Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
- Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993.
"On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks,"
157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
- Blattberg, Robert C & Gonedes, Nicholas J, 1974. "A Comparison of the Stable and Student Distributions as Statistical Models for Stock Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(2), pages 244-80, April.
- Hinich, Melvin J & Patterson, Douglas M, 1985. "Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 69-77, January.
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ross, Stephen A, 1995. " Survival," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 853-73, July.
- Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Real-Time Equity Market Indices: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 864-80, July.
- Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993.
"Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
- Tom Doan, . "REGRESET: RATS procedure to perform Ramsey RESET test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00181, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGWHITENNTEST: RATS procedure to perform White neural network test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D., 1988. "Theorems On Distinguishing Deterministic Form Random Systems," Working papers 366, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Tauchen, George E & Pitts, Mark, 1983. "The Price Variability-Volume Relationship on Speculative Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 485-505, March.
- repec:att:wimass:9523 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- P. B. Solibakke, 2000. "Stock return volatility in thinly traded markets. An empirical analysis of trading and non-trading processes for individual stocks in the Norwegian thinly traded equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 299-310.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:11:y:2005:i:2:p:111-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.