Evaluating the Median Voter Modelâ€™s Explanatory Power
We match individual senatorsâ€™ voting behavior on legislative proposals with 24 real referenda decisions on exactly the same issues with identical wording. This setting allows us to evaluate the median voter modelâ€™s quality with revealed constituentsâ€™ preferences. Results indicate a limited explanatory power of the median voter model: It explains 17.6 percentage points more than random voting and a senatorâ€™s probability to accept a proposal in parliament increases on average by 8.4 percentage points when the district median voter accepts the proposal.
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