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The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach

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  • Esteves, Rui
  • Lennard, Jason
  • Kenny, Seán

Abstract

Default is as old as sovereign debt. Since 1820, sovereigns have spent 18% of time in a state of default. Despite the scale of the problem, the causes and consequences of defaults are still imperfectly understood. In this paper we quantify the aggregate cost of defaults, based on a sample of 50 sovereigns between 1870 and 2010. Since defaults are endogenous to the business cycle, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find significant and persistent costs of defaults starting at 1.6% of GDP and peaking at 3.3% before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. Moreover, we identify a large heterogeneity of costs by the cause of default. Higher costs are associated with defaults initiated by negative supply shocks, political crises, or adverse terms of trade. In contrast, domestic demand shocks have a moderate effect that is quickly reversed.

Suggested Citation

  • Esteves, Rui & Lennard, Jason & Kenny, Seán, 2021. "The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 16166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16166
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    Cited by:

    1. Manzano Quiroga Jeremías Angel, 2025. "No Pay, No Debt: Domestic Costs of Sovereign Defaults," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4817, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    2. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Economic sanctions and sovereign debt default," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    3. Panizza, Ugo, 2025. "Do countries default in bad times? The role of alternative detrending techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    4. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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