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Credit Risk, Systemic Uncertainties and Economic Capital Requirements for an Artificial Bank Loan Portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Alexis Derviz
  • Narcisa Kadlcakova
  • Lucie Kobzova

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of different credit risk-based capital requirement implementations on banks' need for capital. The capital requirements for an artificially constructed risky loan portfolio are calculated by applying the BIS approach, the two widespread commercial risk-measurement models, CreditMetrics and CreditRisk+, and, finally, an original synthetic model similar to KMV. In the first three cases we closely follow the methodologies proposed by the regulatory or credit risk models. Economic capital requirements for the latter are obtained by means of Monte Carlo simulations. In the context of CreditMetrics, we additionally perform a Monte Carlo-based stress testing of the monetary policy changes reflected in the term structure of interest rates. Our model of KMV type combines the elements of the structural and the reduced-form methods of risky debt pricing, and the possibilities of its numerical solution are outlined.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcakova & Lucie Kobzova, 2003. "Credit Risk, Systemic Uncertainties and Economic Capital Requirements for an Artificial Bank Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2003/09, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/09
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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/wp9-2003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine & Lo, Andrew W., 2000. "Nonparametric risk management and implied risk aversion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 9-51.
    2. Alexis Derviz, 2000. "Monetary Transmission and Asset-Liability Management by Financial Institutions in Transitional Economies - Implications for Czech Monetary Policy," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2000/22, Czech National Bank.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Barnhill Jr., Theodore M. & Maxwell, William F., 2002. "Modeling correlated market and credit risk in fixed income portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 347-374, March.
    5. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    7. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten, 2000. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 433-451.
    8. Madan, Dilip & Unal, Haluk, 2000. "A Two-Factor Hazard Rate Model for Pricing Risky Debt and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 43-65, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Derviz & Narcisa Kadlcáková, 2005. "Business cycle, credit risk and economic capital determination by commercial banks," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 299-327, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Van Roy, Patrick, 2005. "Credit ratings and the standardised approach to credit risk in Basel II," Working Paper Series 517, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; economic capital; market risk; New Basel Capital Accord; systemic uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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