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Razor-Thin Mass Elections with High Turnout

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  • David K Levine
  • Cesar Martinelli

Abstract

We argue that traditional voting models fail to fully explain the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. Instead, we model elections as a competition between incentive schemes to mobilize voters. We elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections, as the potential to be pivotal motivates voters instead of exclusively costly incentives as in nonclose elections. We show that, under those conditions, better voter targeting results in tighter races and increased turnout. Furthermore, the smaller party often has a strong incentive to commit to strategies that ensure a close election.
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Suggested Citation

  • David K Levine & Cesar Martinelli, 2024. "Razor-Thin Mass Elections with High Turnout," Levine's Working Paper Archive 11694000000000094, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:11694000000000094
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vogl, Tom S., 2014. "Race and the politics of close elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 101-113.
    2. Levine, David K. & Mattozzi, Andrea & Modica, Salvatore, 2024. "The tripartite auction folk theorem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Mulligan, Casey B & Hunter, Charles G, 2003. "The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 116(1-2), pages 31-54, July.
    4. David K. Levine & Andrea Mattozzi, 2020. "Voter Turnout with Peer Punishment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3298-3314, October.
    5. Barry Nalebuff & Ron Shachar, 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 525-547, June.
    6. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Rosenthal, Howard, 1985. "Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 62-78, March.
    7. David K Levine & Andrea Mattozzi & Salvatore Modica, 2022. "Social Mechanisms and Political Economy: When Lobbyists Succeed, Pollsters Fail and Populists Win," Levine's Working Paper Archive 11694000000000148, David K. Levine.
    8. Ewerhart, Christian, 2017. "Contests with small noise and the robustness of the all-pay auction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 195-211.
    9. Jack Hirshleifer, 1989. "Conflict and rent-seeking success functions: Ratio vs. difference models of relative success," Springer Books, in: Roger D. Congleton & Arye L. Hillman & Kai A. Konrad (ed.), 40 Years of Research on Rent Seeking 1, pages 251-262, Springer.
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