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Razor-Thin Mass Elections with High Turnout

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  • David K Levine
  • Cesar Martinelli

Abstract

We argue that standard models of voting do a bad job explaining the frequency of very close mass elections with high turnout. We instead model head-to-head elections as a competition between incentive schemes to turn out voters and elucidate conditions under which parties might prefer close elections in which voters are motivated by pivotality rather than providing voters with costly incentives to turn out in an election that is not close. When this is the case, we show that better targeting of voters results in closer votes and higher turnouts and that the smaller of the two parties has a strong incentive to engage in commitment that will drive a close election.
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Suggested Citation

  • David K Levine & Cesar Martinelli, 2024. "Razor-Thin Mass Elections with High Turnout," Levine's Working Paper Archive 11694000000000094, David K. Levine.
    • Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:11694000000000094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mulligan, Casey B & Hunter, Charles G, 2003. "The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 116(1-2), pages 31-54, July.
    2. David K. Levine & Andrea Mattozzi, 2020. "Voter Turnout with Peer Punishment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3298-3314, October.
    3. Barry Nalebuff & Ron Shachar, 1999. "Follow the Leader: Theory and Evidence on Political Participation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 525-547, June.
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    5. Vogl, Tom S., 2014. "Race and the politics of close elections," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 101-113.
    6. David K Levine & Andrea Mattozzi & Salvatore Modica, 2022. "Social Mechanisms and Political Economy: When Lobbyists Succeed, Pollsters Fail and Populists Win," Levine's Working Paper Archive 11694000000000148, David K. Levine.
    7. Ewerhart, Christian, 2017. "Contests with small noise and the robustness of the all-pay auction," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 195-211.
    8. Levine, David K. & Mattozzi, Andrea & Modica, Salvatore, 2024. "The tripartite auction folk theorem," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
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