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Análisis de Derechos Contingentes: Aplicación a Casas Comerciales

  • Rodrigo Alfaro
  • Natalia Gallardo

The Contingent Claim Analysis (CCA) is a useful tool for the risk analysis of listed companies. In this paper, we present the application of CCA to the department-store firms listed on the Chilean stock market. We obtain two main results: (1) the simplified version of distance to default proposed by Byström (2007) works for these firms, and (2) the distance to default found for this group of firms can be related to macroeconomic variables such as unemployment rate, output growth, and interest rate.

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Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 535.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:535
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  1. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  2. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 745, Econometric Society.
  3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  4. Felipe Zurita, 2008. "La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas," Documentos de Trabajo 336, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  5. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
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