Money As An Inflation Indicator In Chile: Does P* Still Work?
This paper analyses the information content of monetary aggregates for inflation in Chile. In particular, we adopt the P* framework that separates the effect of an estimated money overhang from those of the output gap. We use two variants of the model, the original Hallman et al (1991), and Gerlach and Svensson (2003), that conditions on an inflation target. We estimate both models for 6 different monetary aggregates, and 2 alternative estimates of equilibrium velocity. We find that over the estimation period, deviations of velocity from its equilibrium have significant effects on inflation, across models and definitions of the money gap, and for both narrow and broad money. The usual Chilean aggregate M1A, although it has some indicator properties, is outperformed by other money aggregates, first of all cash in the hands of the public, and a broad money aggregate containing time and foreign currency deposits. However, out-of sample forecasts show that over the recent past, most money gaps do not improve inflation forecasts. Also, inflation forecasts from broad and narrow money aggregates diverge in opposite directions in recent years, reflecting the estimated gaps that are large both for M1A and broader definitions of money, but opposite in sign. This finding puts a question mark behind the stability of money demand in recent times of stable and low inflation.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2004|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Svensson, Lars, 1999.
"Does the P* Model provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?,"
671, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, 02.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide any Rationale for Monetary Targeting," Papers 671, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2198, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," NBER Working Papers 7178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
- Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000.
"Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?,"
NBER Working Papers
8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001. "Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?," BIS Working Papers 98, Bank for International Settlements.
- Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991.
"Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
- McCallum, Bennett T, 1980. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy: An Overview," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 716-746, November.
- Jorge Restrepo L., 2002. "Demanda de Dinero para Transacciones en Chile," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(3), pages 95-104, December.
- Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-1027, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.