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Políticas de Estabilización en Chile Durante los Noventa

  • Carlos José García
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    This paper provides econometric evidence on the effectiveness of targeting inflation in order to reduce the rate of inflation in Chile in the 1991-97 period. This paper shows that the inflation target altered the inflationary dynamic, by following through with out–of-sample forecasts with VAR models. Second, this paper estimates the Central Bank’s feedback rule by using a semi-structural VAR, which shows that an unexpected and temporary real interest shock can reduce the inflationary gap. However, this paper argues that the strategy of using unexpected and temporary shocks to explain the decline in inflation is misleading. The paper supports this with consideration to the fact that the inflation target was an announced, decreasing, and permanent policy. Third, by using an unrestricted VAR, this paper performs dynamic solutions that assume an exogenous and known path for the inflation target. The results indicate that the decreasing inflation target gradually led inflation to the single-digit range without a drop in output. However, the real appreciation observed during this period and connected with a capital inflow shock was also an important element to explain the decline in the rate of inflation.

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    File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/estudios/documentos-trabajo/pdf/dtbc132.pdf
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    Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 132.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:132
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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    5. Angel Cabrera & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2000. "Monetary Policy in Chile: a black box?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 88, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    10. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16.
    11. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    12. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    13. Richard Clarida, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 8603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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