Testing serial dependence in the stock markets of the G7 countries, Portugal, Spain and Greece
This paper utilizes several tests to analyze serial dependence in financial data. In an attempt to provide a better explanation of the behavior of financial markets, we utilized tests that make use of mutual information and developed a detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Applying these tests to the series of stock market indexes of 10 European countries, we concluded for the absence of linear autocorrelation. However, with other tests, we found nonlinear serial dependence that affects the rates of return. Our results of mutual information and global correlation based tests confirmed such results. With DFA, we found out that most return rates series have long-range dependence, which appears to be more pronounced for Spain, Greece and Portugal. These conclusions could imply possibility of prediction in those series and thus the violation of the efficient market assumption.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Colégio Espírito SANTO|
Phone: (351) 266 740 869
Web page: http://www.cefage.uevora.pt
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, P., 1994.
"Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables,"
Cahiers de recherche
9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Enrico Scalas, 2005.
"Five Years of Continuous-time Random Walks in Econophysics,"
- Enrico Scalas, 2005. "Five Years of Continuous-time Random Walks in Econophysics," Finance 0501005, EconWPA.
- Ausloos, M., 2000. "Statistical physics in foreign exchange currency and stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 48-65.
- Rui Menezes & Andreia Dionísio & Hossein Hassanic, 2010. "On the globalization of stock markets: An application of VECM, SSA technique and mutual information to the G7?," CEFAGE-UE Working Papers 2010_06, University of Evora, CEFAGE-UE (Portugal).
- Campbell, John, 1987.
"Stock Returns and the Term Structure,"
3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Jaroszewicz, Sebastian & Mariani, M. Cristina & Ferraro, Marta, 2005. "Long correlations and truncated Levy walks applied to the study Latin-American market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(2), pages 461-474.
- Anirban Chakraborti & Ioane Muni Toke & Marco Patriarca & Frederic Abergel, 2011. "Econophysics review: I. Empirical facts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(7), pages 991-1012.
- Ausloos, M. & Vandewalle, N. & Boveroux, Ph. & Minguet, A. & Ivanova, K., 1999. "Applications of statistical physics to economic and financial topics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 229-240.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991.
"Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity,"
359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo & Fernandez-Anaya, Guillermo, 2008. "Time-varying Hurst exponent for US stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(24), pages 6159-6169.
- Muchnik, Lev & Bunde, Armin & Havlin, Shlomo, 2009. "Long term memory in extreme returns of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(19), pages 4145-4150.
- Fernandes, Marcelo, 2001.
"Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
413, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Marcelo Fernandes & Breno Neri, 2010. "Nonparametric Entropy-Based Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 276-306.
- C. W. Granger & E. Maasoumi & J. Racine, 2004. "A Dependence Metric for Possibly Nonlinear Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 649-669, 09.
- Mariani, M.C. & Florescu, I. & Beccar Varela, M.P. & Ncheuguim, E., 2009. "Long correlations and Levy models applied to the study of memory effects in high frequency (tick) data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(8), pages 1659-1664.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2012_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Angela Pacheco)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.