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How Fast Must Vaccination Campaigns Proceed in Order to Beat Rising Covid-19 Infection Numbers?

Author

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  • Claudius Gros
  • Daniel Gros

Abstract

We derive an analytic expression describing how health costs and death counts of the Covid-19 pandemic change over time as vaccination proceeds. Meanwhile, the disease may continue to spread exponentially unless checked by Non Pharmacological Interventions (NPI). The key factors are that the mortality risk from a Covid-19 infection increases exponentially with age and that the sizes of age cohorts decrease linearly at the top of the population pyramid. Taking these factors into account, we derive an expression for a critical threshold, which determines the minimal speed a vaccination campaign needs to have in order to be able to keep fatalities from rising. Younger countries with fast vaccination campaigns find it substantially easier to reach this threshold than countries with aged population and slower vaccination. We find that for EU countries it will take some time to reach this threshold, given that the new, now dominant, mutations, have a significantly higher infection rate. The urgency of accelerating vaccination is increased by early evidence that the new strains also have a higher mortality risk [1]. We also find that protecting the over 60 years old, which constitute one quarter of the EU population, would reduce the loss of live by 95 percent.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudius Gros & Daniel Gros, 2021. "How Fast Must Vaccination Campaigns Proceed in Order to Beat Rising Covid-19 Infection Numbers?," EconPol Policy Brief 34, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_34
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol_Policy_Brief_34_Vaccination_Speed.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Levin & William P. Hanage & Nana Owusu-Boaitey & Kensington B. Cochran & Seamus P. Walsh & Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, 2020. "Assessing the Age Specificity of Infection Fatality Rates for COVID-19: Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, & Public Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 27597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Claudius Gros & Daniel Gros, 2021. "Incentives for accelerating the production of Covid-19 vaccines in the presence of adjustment costs," Papers 2102.09807, arXiv.org.
    3. Claudius Gros & Roser Valenti & Lukas Schneider & Kilian Valenti & Daniel Gros, 2020. "Containment efficiency and control strategies for the Corona pandemic costs," Papers 2004.00493, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 60(4), pages 206-227, December.

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