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Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of their Integration into the World Trading System

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  • Jaleel Ahmad
  • Jing Yang

Abstract

The paper explores the short and the long run prospects of in-tegrating the transitional economies of Eastern Europe into the world trading system. This is attempted in a quantitative framework that considers three broad, non-competing alternative scenarios that are feasible. The quantitative exercise is based on the estimation of time trends from a consistent data set for the years 1973 through 1993. The Box-Jenkins estimation and forecasting for the 10-year period, 1990-2000, confirms these trends. By a wide margin, Eastern Europe's trade with the European Union (EU) appears to be the most promising channel for bringing these countries into the mainstream of world trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaleel Ahmad & Jing Yang, 1998. "Trade Liberalization in Eastern European Countries and the Prospects of their Integration into the World Trading System," CESifo Working Paper Series 164, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_164
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Havrylyshyn, Oleh & Pritchett, Lant, 1991. "European trade patterns after the transition," Policy Research Working Paper Series 748, The World Bank.
    2. Peter A.G. Van Bergeijk & Harry Oldersma, 1990. "Détente, Market‐oriented Reform and German Unification: Potential Consequences for the World Trade System," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 599-609, November.
    3. Biessen, Guido, 1991. "Is the impact of central planning on the level of foreign trade really negative?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 22-44, March.
    4. Wang, Zhen Kun & Winters, L. Alan, 1991. "The Trading Potential of Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 610, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Baldwin, Richard, 1993. "The Potential for Trade Between the Countries of EFTA and Central and Eastern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "Inflation and Welfare: Comment on Robert Lucas," NBER Working Papers 6979, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Maria Paula Fontoura & Nuno Crespo, 2004. "Integration of CEECs into EU Markets: Structural Change and Convergence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2004/15, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

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