IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12723.html

One Great Pool or Many? Measuring Global Oil Market Integration Using a Dynamic Time Warping-Hierarchical Cluster Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Gronwald
  • Luyao Zhu

Abstract

This paper measures global crude oil market integration using dynamic time warping combined with hierarchical cluster analysis. Using ten global crude oil prices (2000-2026), we find that markets cluster primarily by geography: West African, Middle Eastern, and U.S. markets each form distinct regional clusters: Brent occupies an intermediate position. A rolling window analysis reveals an increase in integration over time, but a remarkably stable regional structure. A subsample analysis shows that during the turbulent 2020-2024 period, integration increases but the clear geographical pattern weakens. Validation metrics such as silhouette width and cophenetic correlation confirm robust clustering across all periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Luyao Zhu, 2026. "One Great Pool or Many? Measuring Global Oil Market Integration Using a Dynamic Time Warping-Hierarchical Cluster Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 12723, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12723
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12723.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.