School Enrollment Shifts Five Years After the Pandemic

The pandemic induced a substantial enrollment shift away from public schools in fall 2020 and a partial return of students in fall 2021, leaving longer-term impacts unclear. We use Massachusetts state- and district-level data to explore enrollment patterns five years after the pandemic's onset. Relative to pre-pandemic trends, fall 2024 enrollment is down 2% in local public schools, up 14% in private schools, and up 45% in home schools. The highest income 20% of districts have lost more public school students than the other 80% combined, with these lower income districts having largely recovered. White and Asian public school enrollments have stabilized at levels 3% and 8% below pre-pandemic trends, while Black and Hispanic enrollments have more than fully recovered. Public school losses are almost entirely concentrated in middle grades (5-8), where enrollment is down 8%, suggesting families place particular weight on those ages when making post-pandemic schooling choices. Five years in, the pandemic has had sustained effects on the size and demographic composition of public schools. Many of the changes observed in Massachusetts appear in national data, suggesting these patterns are widespread.