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Dissecting The Monty Hall Anomaly

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  • James, Duncan
  • Friedman, Daniel
  • Louie, Christina
  • O'Meara, Taylor

Abstract

We assess competing explanations of irrational behavior in the Monty Hall problem by creating new variants of the problem. Some variants employ a feature that automates the merging of probabilities, thus rendering transparent the probabilistic advantage of the rational choice. That feature also enables systematic variation in informational asymmetry, and in ordering of actions. Data from 77 subjects, each of whom makes 30 binary decisions, indicate that automated merging raises the fraction of rational choices from around 40% to over 80%. Other features examined have much less impact, indicating the importance of a Bayesian updating failure. (JEL C91, D02, D81, D83)
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Suggested Citation

  • James, Duncan & Friedman, Daniel & Louie, Christina & O'Meara, Taylor, 2018. "Dissecting The Monty Hall Anomaly," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7tp7c0rk, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt7tp7c0rk
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Esponda & Emanuel Vespa & Sevgi Yuksel, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 752-782, March.
    2. Duarte Gonc{c}alves & Jonathan Libgober & Jack Willis, 2021. "Retractions: Updating from Complex Information," Papers 2106.11433, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D02 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Institutions: Design, Formation, Operations, and Impact
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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