The Horizon Effect of Stock Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty on Portfolio Choice: UK Evidence
We study how stock return's predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor.s decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. We consider the FTSE All-Share Index as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the risk free asset in forming the investor's portfolio. We identify the most powerful predictors of the stock return by accounting for model uncertainty. We find that though stock return predictability is weak, it can still affect the investor's optimal portfolio decision over different investment horizons.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:||Aug 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0) 29 20874417
Fax: +44 (0) 29 20874419
Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001.
"Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
- Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F.J. Steel, 1998. "Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging," Econometrics 9804001, EconWPA, revised 31 Jul 1999.
- Carmen Fernández & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, . "Benchmark priors for Bayesian Model averaging," Working Papers 98-06, FEDEA.
- Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Goetzmann, W.N., 1990.
"Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields,"
fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
- Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
- Tom Doan, . "OLSHODRICK: RATS procedure to compute Hodrick standard errors," Statistical Software Components RTS00147, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Granger, Clive W. J., 1992. "Forecasting stock market prices: Lessons for forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-13, June.
- Banz, Rolf W., 1981. "The relationship between return and market value of common stocks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 3-18, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2009/4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruce Webb)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.