Spatial, Seasonal and Temporal Dynamics of PMFBY Performance in Rajasthan: Evidence from District-Level Panel Data

This paper examines the spatial and temporal patterns of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) in Rajasthan, analysing a district-level balanced panel spanning from 2018-19 to 2025-26. It highlights seasonal variations, district-level disparities, farmer groups, and the transition to voluntary enrolment after the 2020 policy reform. We combine descriptive analysis with two-way fixed-effects panel regressions with visual depiction by using trend analysis. Descriptive results show Rajasthan consistently outperforms the national average in terms of area penetration and the ratio of farmer-benefited whereas participation by non-loanees remains persistently low in comparison to other states. Significant spatial and seasonal differences are evident: a distinct West-East divide, with Western Rajasthan generally outperforming Eastern Rajasthan on PMFBY indicators. Additionally, the Kharif season faces higher production risk and claim rates than Rabi. Panel estimates show that future enrolment tends to increase with the number of farmers benefited by prior claim payouts but decreases as the total value of claims paid rises. This pattern is mainly observed among loanee applicants and is largely absent among non-loanee applicants. Interaction analyses reveal that Western Rajasthan exhibits stronger claim responses whereas Eastern Rajasthan displays weaker or even opposite responses. The post-2020 trend analysis shows continued participation following the transition to voluntary enrolment, with a particularly pronounced increase in loanee applications. Western Rajasthan also exhibits stronger post-2020 participation dynamics than Eastern Rajasthan. Overall, the evidence indicates that PMFBY’s performance in Rajasthan is not attributed only to climatic and agricultural risks; it is also influenced by farmers’ experiences with the scheme and notable regional disparities in coverage. The results highlight the need to tailor implementation strategies for different regions, improve claim settlement processes and promote voluntary participation among non-loanee farmers.