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The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit equals $1.0 trillion in 2020 and averages $1.3 trillion per year over the 2021–2030 period, under the assumption that existing laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. Because of those large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow from 79 percent of GDP in 2019 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. By 2050, debt would be 180 percent of GDP—far higher than it has ever been.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2020. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030," Reports 56020, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:56020
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-01/56020-CBO-Outlook.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2020. "Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 619-644, September.
    2. David R. Agrawal & Ronald B. Davies & Sara LaLumia & Nadine Riedel & Kimberley Scharf, 2021. "A snapshot of public finance research from immediately prior to the pandemic: IIPF 2020," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1276-1297, October.
    3. Thomas Husted & David Nickerson, 2021. "Private Support for Public Disaster Aid," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Rajeev K. Goel & James R. Jones, 2022. "Managing the risk of COVID‐19 via vaccine passports: Modeling economic and policy implications," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2578-2586, September.
    5. repec:aei:rpaper:1008570714 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tracy Gordon & Lucy Dadayan & Kim Rueben, 2020. "State and Local Government Finances in the COVID-19 Era," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 733-758, September.
    7. Burgess, Matthew G. & Langendorf, Ryan E. & Ippolito, Tara & Pielke, Roger Jr, 2020. "Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation," SocArXiv vndqr, Center for Open Science.
    8. Jeffrey Clemens & Benedic Ippolito & Stan Veuger, 2021. "Medicaid and fiscal federalism during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 94-109, December.
    9. Jesse M. Abraham, 2020. "Jump-starting America: how breakthrough science can revive economic growth and the American dream," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 55(3), pages 163-165, July.
    10. Brester, Gary W. & McCullough, Michael & Atwood, Joseph & Austin, Caroline, 2023. "Beer Excise Taxes and the Craft Beverage and Modernization Tax Reform Act," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 48(2), May.
    11. repec:aei:journl:y:2020:id:1008578025 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Trumps Wirtschaftspolitik und der Corona-Schock - Perspektiven für die USA [Trumps Economic Policy and the Corona Shock - Perspectives for the USA]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(11), pages 848-855, November.
    13. Mohajan, Haradhan, 2020. "Most Fatal Pandemic COVID-19 Outbreak: An Analysis of Economic Consequences," MPRA Paper 101623, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Apr 2020.
    14. Alan J. Auerbach & William Gale, 2020. "The effects of the COVID pandemic on the federal budget outlook," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 202-212, October.
    15. Maria Ana Matias & Rita Santos & Panos Kasteridis & Katja Grasic & Anne Mason & Nigel Rice, 2022. "Approaches to projecting future healthcare demand," Working Papers 186cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    16. Paul J. J. Welfens, 2020. "Trump’s Trade Policy, BREXIT, Corona Dynamics, EU Crisis and Declining Multilateralism," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 563-634, July.
    17. Miguel Garza Casado & Britta Glennon & Julia Lane & David McQuown & Daniel Rich & Bruce A. Weinberg, 2020. "The Aggregate Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the COVID-19 Unemployment Supplement," NBER Working Papers 27576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Kaan Celebi & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Trump: Conclusions from an Impact Evaluation Analysis," EIIW Discussion paper disbei281, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    19. Melanie Marks & David Zirkle & Montana Shanks & Emily Moran, 2020. "Teaching Macroeconomics Using the Coronavirus Pandemic Example in the High School Classroom," Journal of Economics Teaching, Journal of Economics Teaching, vol. 5(2), pages 44-63, December.
    20. Hilary W. Hoynes & Nicole Maestas & Alexander Strand, 2022. "Legal Representation in Disability Claims," NBER Working Papers 29871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. repec:aei:rpaper:1008586598 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Thouraya Bahri & Aditya Singh, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Impact on Debt: Policy Implications," Working Papers 2107, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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