The GARCH-t model is widely used to predict volatilty. However, modeling the conditional variance as a linear combination of past squared observations may not be the best approach if the standardized observations are non-Gaussian. A simple modi.cation lets the conditional variance, or its logarithm, depend on past values of the score of a t-distribution. The fact that the transformed variable has a beta distribution makes it possible to derive the properties of the resulting models. A practical consequence is that the conditional variance is more resistant to extreme observations. Extensions to deal with leverage and more than one component are discussed, as are the implications of distributions other than Student's t.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001.
"Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2002. "Stationarity and the existence of moments of a family of GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 109-117, January.
- Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent, 2002.
"A New Class of Multivariate skew Densities, with Application to GARCH Models,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2002
5, Society for Computational Economics.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2002. "A new class of multivariate skew densities, with application to GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2002020, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
- Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
- Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
- Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King, 2004.
"Box-Cox Stochastic Volatility Models with Heavy-Tails and Correlated Errors,"
Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers
26/04, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Zhang, Xibin & King, Maxwell L., 2008. "Box-Cox stochastic volatility models with heavy-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 549-566, June.
- GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995.
CORE Discussion Papers
1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
- Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
- Harvey, Andrew & Streibel, Mariane, 1998. "Testing for a slowly changing level with special reference to stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 167-189, August.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- He, Changli & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999.
"Properties of moments of a family of GARCH processes,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 173-192, September.
- He, Changli & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1997. "Properties of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 198, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996.
"Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Bollerslev-Mikkelson(1996) FIEGARCH models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00173, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0840. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.