IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/0633.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Policy Implications of Stochastic Learning Using a Modified PAGE2002 Model

Author

Listed:
  • Alberth, S.
  • Hope, C.

Abstract

We consider the importance of Endogenous Technical Change (ETC) on the risk profiles for different abatement strategies using the PAGE2002 model with ETC. Three outcomes from this modelling research have significant impacts on the way we ‘optimise’ the greenhouse gas abatement path. Firstly, it was found that for most standard abatement paths there would be an initial "learning investment" required that would substantially reduce the unit costs of CO2 abatement as compared to a business as usual scenario. Secondly, optimising an abatement program where ETC has been included can lead to an increased risk profile during the time of widespread CO2 abatements due to the costs associated with learning. Finally, the inclusion of ETC leads to a slightly deferred optimised abatement path followed by a drastic abatement program that itself would seem highly impractical. Together, the results draw attention to the possibilities of uncovering uncertainty through proactive abatements.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberth, S. & Hope, C., 2006. "Policy Implications of Stochastic Learning Using a Modified PAGE2002 Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0633
    Note: IO
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.electricitypolicy.org.uk/pubs/wp/eprg0614.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan, 2009. "Wind power price trends in the United States: Struggling to remain competitive in the face of strong growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1071, March.
    2. Mostafaeipour, Ali, 2010. "Productivity and development issues of global wind turbine industry," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1048-1058, April.
    3. Sun, Xiaojing & Huang, Diangui & Wu, Guoqing, 2012. "The current state of offshore wind energy technology development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 298-312.
    4. Brandt, Urs Steiner & Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard, 2006. "Climate change negotiations and first-mover advantages: the case of the wind turbine industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1175-1184, July.
    5. Pettersson, Fredrik, 2007. "Carbon pricing and the diffusion of renewable power generation in Eastern Europe: A linear programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2412-2425, April.
    6. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
    7. Michael Dale & Susan Krumdieck & Pat Bodger, 2011. "A Dynamic Function for Energy Return on Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-14, October.
    8. del Río, Pablo, 2012. "The dynamic efficiency of feed-in tariffs: The impact of different design elements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 139-151.
    9. Matteson, Schuyler, 2014. "Methods for multi-criteria sustainability and reliability assessments of power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 130-136.
    10. Kaldellis, John K. & Zafirakis, D., 2011. "The wind energy (r)evolution: A short review of a long history," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1887-1901.
    11. Voormolen, J.A. & Junginger, H.M. & van Sark, W.G.J.H.M., 2016. "Unravelling historical cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 435-444.
    12. de Vries, Bert J.M. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique M., 2007. "Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2590-2610, April.
    13. Williams, Eric & Hittinger, Eric & Carvalho, Rexon & Williams, Ryan, 2017. "Wind power costs expected to decrease due to technological progress," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-435.
    14. Rout, Ullash K. & Fahl, Ulrich & Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Voß, Alfred, 2009. "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models--a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2814-2830, July.
    15. Dosi, Giovanni & Grazzi, Marco & Mathew, Nanditha, 2017. "The cost-quantity relations and the diverse patterns of “learning by doing”: Evidence from India," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1873-1886.
    16. Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, Kim J. & Tamba, Marie, 2017. "The Importance of Learning for Achieving the UK's Targets for Offshore Wind," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 259-268.
    17. Pettersson, Fredrik & Söderholm, Patrik, 2009. "The diffusion of renewable electricity in the presence of climate policy and technology learning: The case of Sweden," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 2031-2040, October.
    18. Gosens, Jorrit & Hedenus, Fredrik & Sandén, Björn A., 2017. "Faster market growth of wind and PV in late adopters due to global experience build-up," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 267-278.
    19. Sijm, Jos & Lehmann, Paul & Chewpreecha, Unnada & Gawel, Erik & Mercure, Jean-Francois & Pollitt, Hector & Strunz, Sebastian, 2014. "EU climate and energy policy beyond 2020: Are additional targets and instruments for renewables economically reasonable?," UFZ Discussion Papers 3/2014, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Division of Social Sciences (ÖKUS).
    20. Iskander Tlili, 2015. "Renewable energy in Saudi Arabia: current status and future potentials," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 859-886, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Technical Change; Optimal Abatement; Climate Change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.