Spillover effect: A study for major capital markets and Romania capital market
In this paper we focus our attention on the tail risk and how different capital markets are influencing each other. Previous studies have detected return and volatility across countries during crises periods. Using the well-know Value at Risk (VaR) measure for heavy tailed financial returns, our objective is to detect if the information for a negative shock in a foreign market helps the forecast of the behavior of another market. We calculate 1 day, 95% and 99% Value at Risk for major US stock indices- S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJ INDUSTRIALS, major European stock indices – CAC 40, FTSE100, DAX30 and for Romanian stock index-BET. The VaR for each index is calculated the following techniques: Historical Simulation, Variance Approach and Extreme Value Theory. Spillover effects being the influence of one market on others, is examined using the Granger causality, for daily changes of the VAR series.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.dofin.ase.ro/carfib/Email:
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle III, Robert F., 2003.
"Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
2003-4, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Ser-Huang Poon, 2004. "Extreme Value Dependence in Financial Markets: Diagnostics, Models, and Financial Implications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(2), pages 581-610.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cab:wpaefr:29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ciprian Necula)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ciprian Necula to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.