To Trade or Not to Trade: The Strategic Trading of Insiders around News Announcements
We argue that insiders' decisions to trade in short windows before news announcements are likely to result from a trade-off between the incentives to capitalize on the foreknowledge of the disclosure and the risk of regulatory scrutiny and lost reputation. We provide evidence that insider buying is driven by the trade-off, while selling is primarily influenced by the deterring effect of the regulatory and reputation risks. We show that insiders strategically choose the amount of shares bought ahead of good news announcements. They increase their purchases as the price impact of the news goes up, but we find that the amount of shares purchased levels off as the news becomes extreme. In contrast, we find that the probability of insider selling significantly decreases with the price impact of the forthcoming bad news. To further support our arguments on the importance of incentives and disincentives to trade, we show that the strategic trading is mainly observed in the most price-sensitive groups of news announcements, it is clearly pronounced for best informed executives (CEOs), and that trading patterns change with changes in regulations, and insiders with higher reputation at risk limit their trading ahead of bad news.
|Date of creation:||Oct 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Priory Road Complex, Priory Road, Bristol, BS8 1TU|
Phone: 0117 928 8415
Fax: 0117 928 8577
Web page: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, D Scott & Mikkelson, Wayne H & Partch, M Megan, 1992. " Managers' Trading around Stock Repurchases," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1947-1961, December.
- Gregory, Alan, et al, 1994.
"UK Directors' Trading: The Impact of Dealings in Smaller Firms,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 37-53, January.
- John Matatko & Alan Gregory & Ian Tonks & Richard Purkis, 1993. "UK Directors Trading: The Impact of Dealings in Smaller Firms," FMG Discussion Papers dp160, Financial Markets Group.
- Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, 02.
- Huddart, Steven & Ke, Bin & Shi, Charles, 2007. "Jeopardy, non-public information, and insider trading around SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 3-36, March.
- Steven Huddart & Bin Ke & Charles Shi, 2005. "Jeopardy, non-public information, and insider trading around SEC 10-K and 10-Q filings," Law and Economics 0502001, EconWPA, revised 03 Jul 2005.
- Yermack, David, 1996. "Higher market valuation of companies with a small board of directors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 185-211, February.
- Michael S. Rozeff & Mir A. Zaman, 1998. "Overreaction and Insider Trading: Evidence from Growth and Value Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 701-716, 04.
- Alan Gregory & John Matatko & Ian Tonks, 1997. "Detecting Information from Directors' Trades: Signal Definition and Variable Size Effects," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 309-342.
- Ke, Bin & Huddart, Steven & Petroni, Kathy, 2003. "What insiders know about future earnings and how they use it: Evidence from insider trades," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 315-346, August.
- Damodaran, Aswath & Liu, Crocker H, 1993. "Insider Trading as a Signal of Private Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 79-119.
- Jana P. Fidrmuc & Marc Goergen & Luc Renneboog, 2006. "Insider Trading, News Releases, and Ownership Concentration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2931-2973, December.
- Fidrmucova, J. & Goergen, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Insider Trading, News Releases and Ownership Concentration," Discussion Paper 2005-97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Fidrmuc Jana P. & Goergen Marc & Renneborg Luc, 2005. "Insider Trading, News Releases and Ownership Concentration," Working Papers wpn05-03, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
- Fidrmucova, J. & Goergen, M. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2005. "Insider Trading, News Releases and Ownership Concentration," Discussion Paper 2005-025, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Sylvain Friederich & Alan Gregory & John Matatko & Ian Tonks, 2002. "Short-run Returns around the Trades of Corporate Insiders on the London Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 7-30.
- Seyhun, H Nejat, 1990. "Do Bidder Managers Knowingly Pay Too Much for Target Firms?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 439-464, October.
- Lustgarten, Steven & Mande, Vivek, 1995. "Financial analysts' earnings forecasts and insider trading," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 233-261.
- Jonathan M. Karpoff & Daniel Lee, 1991. "Insider Trading Before New Issue Announcements," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), Spring.
- Dirk Jenter, 2005. "Market Timing and Managerial Portfolio Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1903-1949, 08.
- Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1996. "Information, Trade, and Derivative Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 163-208.
- Seyhun, H. Nejat, 1986. "Insiders' profits, costs of trading, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 189-212, June.
- Ausubel, Lawrence M, 1990. "Insider Trading in a Rational Expectations Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1022-1041, December.
- Jaffe, Jeffrey F, 1974. "Special Information and Insider Trading," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(3), pages 410-428, July.
- Qiang Cheng & Kin Lo, 2006. "Insider Trading and Voluntary Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 815-848, December.
- Michael J. Fishman & Kathleen M. Hagerty, 1992. "Insider Trading and the Efficiency of Stock Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(1), pages 106-122, Spring.
- Eli Ofek & David Yermack, 2000. "Taking Stock: Equity-Based Compensation and the Evolution of Managerial Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1367-1384, 06.
- Finnerty, Joseph E, 1976. "Insiders and Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1141-1148, September.
- Volume 23 Number 1, 1994. "Insider Trading Following Material News Events: Evidence from Earnings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 23(1), Spring.
- Piotroski, Joseph D. & Roulstone, Darren T., 2005. "Do insider trades reflect both contrarian beliefs and superior knowledge about future cash flow realizations?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 55-81, February.
- Feng Gu & John Q. Li, 2007. "The Credibility of Voluntary Disclosure and Insider Stock Transactions," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(4), pages 771-810, 09.
- Garfinkel, Jon A., 1997. "New evidence on the effects of federal regulations on insider trading: The Insider Trading and Securities Fraud Enforcement Act (ITSFEA)," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 89-111, April.
- Noe, Christopher F., 1999. "Voluntary disclosures and insider transactions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 305-326, July.
- Bettis, J. C. & Coles, J. L. & Lemmon, M. L., 2000. "Corporate policies restricting trading by insiders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 191-220, August.
- H. Nejat Seyhun, 1992. "Why Does Aggregate Insider Trading Predict Future Stock Returns?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1303-1331.
- Kallunki, Juha-Pekka & Nilsson, Henrik & Hellström, Jörgen, 2009. "Why do insiders trade? Evidence based on unique data on Swedish insiders," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 37-53, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:09/613. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Temple)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.