Ideology, Competence and Luck: What determines general election results?
This paper investigates the impact of luck, defined as global economic growth, and competence, defined as the difference between domestic and world growth, on voting in general elections since 1960. The vote of incumbent parties of the right is found to be sensitive to luck, whereas that of incumbent parties of the left is not. This is consistent with the Clientele Hypothesis given electorates which fail to perfectly distinguish luck from competence. Economic competence plays a strong role in determining the vote, especially in high-income democracies. The electoral reward to competence is essentially equal across parties of either ideology, contra to the Saliency Hypothesis. The data are also supportive of the Territory Hypothesis, namely that greater ideological territory increases a party's relative vote share.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0117 928 8415
Fax: 0117 928 8577
Web page: http://www.efm.bris.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Swank, O H, 1993.
" Popularity Functions Based on the Partisan Theory,"
Springer, vol. 75(4), pages 339-56, April.
- Andrew Leigh, 2009.
"Does the World Economy Swing National Elections?,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(2), pages 163-181, 04.
- Holcombe, Randall G, 1980. "An Empirical Test of the Median Voter Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 260-74, April.
- Casey B. Mulligan & Charles G. Hunter, 2000.
"The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote,"
0025, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:08/607. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jonathan Temple)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.