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Incumbency Effects in Brazilian Mayoral Elections: A Regression Discontinuity Design

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  • Leandro De Magalhães

Abstract

I use a regression discontinuity design to study incumbency effects in Brazilian mayoral elections. For mayors elected in 1996 I find no evidence of an incumbency effect on the probability of being elected in 2000. For the 2000-2004 electoral cycle I also find no effect except for races where the mayor elected in 2000 belonged to the a party in the center-right coalition and the runner-up belonged to a party in the center-left coalition. In these races I find an incumbency disadvantage. For mayors elected in 2004 I find a strong incumbency advantage in the 2008 election across all races. I also show some novel incumbency effects. Winning a mayoral election does not have a positive effect on the future prospects of a politician’s career at the state, national or local level. Losing a mayoral election increases the probability of a politician switching parties.

Suggested Citation

  • Leandro De Magalhães, 2012. "Incumbency Effects in Brazilian Mayoral Elections: A Regression Discontinuity Design," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 12/284, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:bri:cmpowp:12/284
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Incumbency Advantage; Political Careers; Regression Discontinuity Design; Mayors; Brazil.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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