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Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy

We employ information-gap decision theory to derive a robust monetary policy response to Knightian parameter uncertainty. This approach provides a quantitative answer to the question: For a specified policy, how much can our models and data err or vary, without rendering the outcome of that policy unacceptable to a policymaker? For a given acceptable level of performance, the policymaker selects the policy that delivers acceptable performance under the greatest range of uncertainty. We show that such information-gap robustness is a proxy for probability of policy success. Hence, policies that are likely to succeed can be identified without knowing the probability distribution. We adopt this approach to investigate empirically the robust monetary policy response to a supply shock with an uncertain degree of persistence.

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Paper provided by Norges Bank in its series Working Paper with number 2006/10.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2006_10
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  1. Brian P. Sack & Volker W. Wieland, 1999. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  3. Klaus Adam, 2001. "On the Relation between Robust and Bayesian Decision Making," CSEF Working Papers 68, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Maenhout, Pascal & Rustichini, Aldo & Sargent, Thomas J. & Siniscalchi, Marciano M., 2006. "Introduction to model uncertainty and robustness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 1-3, May.
  5. Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Q. Farooq Akram & Gunnar Bärdsen & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Monetary policy and asset prices: to respond or not?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 279-292.
  7. Onatski, Alexei & Williams, Noah, 2002. "Modeling model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0169, European Central Bank.
  8. Nikolay Nenovsky & S. Statev, 2006. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00260898, HAL.
  9. Ramón Adalid & Günter Coenen & Peter McAdam & Stefano Siviero, 2005. "The Performance and Robustness of Interest-Rate Rules in Models of the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  10. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  11. Leitemo, Kai & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "Robust monetary policy in a small open economy," Research Discussion Papers 20/2005, Bank of Finland.
  12. M. Ruth & K. Donaghy & P. Kirshen, 2006. "Introduction," Chapters, in: Regional Climate Change and Variability, chapter 1 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  13. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2001. "Acknowledging Misspecification in Macroeconomic Theory," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 519-535, July.
  14. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  15. L. Joe Moffitt & John K. Stranlund & Barry C. Field, 2005. "Inspections To Avert Terrorism: Robustness Under Severe Uncertainty," Working Papers 2005-3, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Resource Economics.
  16. Larry G. Epstein & JianJun Miao, 2001. "A Two-Person Dynamic Equilibrium under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 478, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. Robert J. Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2000. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Rustem, Berc & Wieland, Volker & Zakovic, Stan, 2005. "Stochastic Optimization and Worst Case Analysis in Monetary Policy Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 5019, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Yakov Ben-Haim, 2005. "Value-at-risk with info-gap uncertainty," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 388-403, November.
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