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Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy

Author

Listed:
  • Q. Farooq Akram

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

  • Yakov Ben-Haim

    (Technion - Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Øyvind Eitrheim

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

We employ information-gap decision theory to derive a robust monetary policy response to Knightian parameter uncertainty. This approach provides a quantitative answer to the question: For a specified policy, how much can our models and data err or vary, without rendering the outcome of that policy unacceptable to a policymaker? For a given acceptable level of performance, the policymaker selects the policy that delivers acceptable performance under the greatest range of uncertainty. We show that such information-gap robustness is a proxy for probability of policy success. Hence, policies that are likely to succeed can be identified without knowing the probability distribution. We adopt this approach to investigate empirically the robust monetary policy response to a supply shock with an uncertain degree of persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy," Working Paper 2006/10, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2006_10
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/globalassets/upload/import/publikasjoner/arbeidsnotater/pdf/arb-2006-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kateøina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíø, 2007. "Striving to Be “Clearly Open” and “Crystal Clear”: Monetary Policy Communication of the CNB," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(11-12), pages 540-557, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Knightian uncertainty; Monetary policy; Info-gap decision theory.;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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