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Review of Methodological Specifics of Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment in the Bank of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Arina Sapova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Aleksey Porshakov

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Andrey Andreev

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Evgenia Shatilo

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

Under the inflation targeting regime, the main goal of the Bank of Russia is to maintain price stability. In order to analyse the options that the central bank can use to implement its monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation down to sustainable low levels it is necessary to understand, considering the available short-term statistical data, the dynamics of consumer prices and individual components of the seasonally adjusted consumer price index. At the same time, the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index requires solving a number of methodological problems, one part of which is common for all economic time series with a seasonal component and the other part is determined by the specific nature of the consumer price index as an aggregate indicator. The paper suggests approaches to solving conceptual problems related to the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index. It also describes basic principles and methods for their implementation that can lead to a significant increase in the quality of identification and interpretation of short-term meaningful variations in consumer prices that the Bank of Russia takes into account when making its monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Arina Sapova & Aleksey Porshakov & Andrey Andreev & Evgenia Shatilo, 2018. "Review of Methodological Specifics of Consumer Price Index Seasonal Adjustment in the Bank of Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps33, Bank of Russia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps33
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantin Styrin, 2018. "Forecasting inflation in Russia by Dynamic Model Averaging," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps39, Bank of Russia.
    2. Konstantin Styrin, 2019. "Forecasting Inflation in Russia Using Dynamic Model Averaging," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(1), pages 3-18, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer price index; inflation; seasonality; seasonal adjustment; aggregate index; consumer price dynamics .;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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