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Deception Under the Veil of Noise

Author

Listed:
  • Jawwad Noor
  • Fernando Payró Chew

Abstract

We study a dynamic predator–prey game in which a predator can conceal its movement under naturally occurring environmental noise. In the safe state, forest noise is i.i.d., whereas in the dangerous state the predator contributes additional noise as it approaches the prey. The prey updates her beliefs about danger from the realized noise sequence and chooses whether to remain vigilant. We characterize equilibrium patterns of noise generated in the forest and show that a marker for deception is a hot-hand effect, whereby streaks persist with increasing probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawwad Noor & Fernando Payró Chew, 2025. "Deception Under the Veil of Noise," Working Papers 1544, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1544
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Rabin & Joel L. Schrag, 1999. "First Impressions Matter: A Model of Confirmatory Bias," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 37-82.
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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

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