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Análisis de la Probabilidad de las Firmas Colombianas para Importar Productos entre 1995 y 2017

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge García-García
  • Enrique Montes-Uribe
  • Juan Sebastián Silva-Rodríguez
  • Héctor Manuel Zárate-Solano

Abstract

This document describes and calculates the probability of importing products in Colombia based on various characteristics of the importing market during the period 1995–2017. The estimates are derived from a nonlinear econometric zero-inflated Poisson model that relates the frequency of importing to its determinants. Subsequently, it analyzes how the probabilities of importing changed in response to key variables in the importing market. The main findings reveal that a small group of importers had the highest likelihood of importing in a market characterized by high concentration and increasing protection. Moreover, the analysis highlights that non-tariff measures and market concentration levels were the most significant factors influencing the probability of importing in Colombia. **** RESUMEN: En este artículo, se calcula y describe la probabilidad de importar productos de acuerdo con algunas características del mercado importador en Colombia durante el periodo de 1995 a 2017. Las estimaciones se basan en un modelo econométrico no lineal de tipo Poisson con exceso de ceros que relaciona la frecuencia de importar con sus determinantes. Posteriormente, se analiza cómo cambian las probabilidades de importar con respecto a variables clave del mercado importador. Los principales hallazgos indican que un grupo reducido de importadores enfrentaron las mayores probabilidades de importar, en un mercado altamente concentrado y cada vez más protegido. Asimismo, las variables más relevantes para entender la probabilidad de importar en Colombia fueron las medidas no arancelarias y el nivel de concentración del mercado.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge García-García & Enrique Montes-Uribe & Juan Sebastián Silva-Rodríguez & Héctor Manuel Zárate-Solano, 2024. "Análisis de la Probabilidad de las Firmas Colombianas para Importar Productos entre 1995 y 2017," Borradores de Economia 1291, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1291
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghodsi, Mahdi, 2023. "Exploring the ‘non-tariff measures black box’: Whose regulatory NTMs on which products improve the imported quality?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 45-67.
    2. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "A survey of empirical studies using transaction level data on exports and imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 215-225, February.
    3. Julien Gourdon & Susan Stone & Frank van Tongeren, 2020. "Non-tariff measures in agriculture," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 147, OECD Publishing.
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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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