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The Possible Trinity: Optimal interest rate,exchange rate, and taxes on capital flows in a DSGE model for a Small Open Economy

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  • Guillermo Escudé

    () (Central Bank of Argentina)

Abstract

A traditional way of thinking about the exchange rate (XR) regime and capital account openness has been framed in terms of the "impossible trinity" or "trilemma", in which policymakers can only have 2 of 3 possible outcomes: open capital markets, monetary independence and pegged XRs. This paper is an extension of Escudé (2012), which focused on interest rate and XR policies, since it introduces the third vertex of the "trinity" in the form of taxes on private foreign debt. These affect the risk-adjusted uncovered interest parity equation and hence influence the SOE´s international financial flows. A useful way to illustrate the range of policy alternatives is to associate them with the faces of a triangle. Each of 3 possible government intervention policies taken individually (in the domestic currency bond market, in the FX market, and in the foreign currency bonds market) corresponds to one of the vertices of the triangle, each of the 3 possible pairs of intervention policies correspond to one of its 3 edges, and the 3 simultaneous intervention policies taken jointly correspond to its interior. This paper shows that this interior, or "possible trinity" is quite generally not only possible but optimal, since the CB obtains a lower loss when it implements a policy with all three interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Escudé, 2015. "The Possible Trinity: Optimal interest rate,exchange rate, and taxes on capital flows in a DSGE model for a Small Open Economy," BCRA Working Paper Series 201563, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:bcr:wpaper:201563
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gali­, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2008. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 116-132, September.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher, 2014. "Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.), Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 7, pages 205-253 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    4. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 2002. "A simple framework for international monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 879-904, July.
    5. Guillermo J. Escudé, 2007. "Alternative Monetary Regimes in a DSGE Model of a Small Open Economy with Two Sectors and Sticky Prices and Wages," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(49), pages 65-138, October -.
    6. Escudé, Guillermo J., 2013. "A DSGE model for a SOE with systematic interest and foreign exchange policies in which policymakers exploit the risk premium for stabilization purposes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 7, pages 1-110.
    7. Guillermo Escudé, 2009. "ARGEMmy: An Intermediate DSGE Model Calibrated/Estimated for Argentina: Two Policy Rules are Often Better than One," BCRA Working Paper Series 200942, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    8. Michael D. Bordo, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 03/160, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    10. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, 2012. "Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Guillermo Escudé, 2007. "ARGEM: A DSGE Model with Banks and Monetary Policy Regimes with Two Feedback Rules, Calibrated for Argentina," BCRA Working Paper Series 200721, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE models; Small Open Economy; monetary and exchange rate policy; capital controls; optimal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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