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The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Claude Lavoie
  • Hope Pioro

Abstract

The authors assess the performance of the Canadian economy under a variety of interest rate rules when the zero bound on nominal interest rates can bind. Their assessment is based on numerical simulations of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model in a stochastic environment. Consistent with the literature, the authors find that the probability and consequences of the zero bound depend strongly on the targeted rate of inflation and that price-level targeting generally leads to better outcomes. Their results show that a non-linear rule is preferable to a linear rule under both inflation and price-level targeting, because of the zero-bound issue. This suggests that central banks should be pre-emptive and adopt an aggressive monetary policy when expected inflation falls below its desired level. The authors' results also show that the monetary authority must be much more forward looking under price-level targeting than under inflation targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Lavoie & Hope Pioro, 2007. "The Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates: Implications for the Optimal Monetary Policy in Canada," Discussion Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:07-1
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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/dp/2007/dp07-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kato, Ryo & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2005. "Optimal monetary policy when interest rates are bounded at zero," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 97-133.
    2. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    3. Genesove, David & Mayer, Christopher J, 1997. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 255-269.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2006. "Describing The Fed’S Conduct With Taylor Rules: Is Interest Rate Smoothing Important?," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 57-77, August.
    5. Coenen Günter & Orphanides Athanasios & Wieland Volker, 2004. "Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, pages 1-25.
    6. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Brian F. Madigan, 1997. "Monetary Policy When Interest Rates Are Bounded At Zero," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 573-585.
    7. Bernard Babineau & Claude Lavoie & Nicolas Moreau, "undated". "Risques et conséquences d’atteindre la borne inférieure du taux d’intérêt nominal de court terme," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 2001-22, Department of Finance Canada.
    8. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    9. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 139-235.
    10. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    11. Summers, Lawrence, 1991. "How Should Long-Term Monetary Policy Be Determined? Panel Discussion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 625-631, August.
    12. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
    13. Alexander L. Wolman, 1998. "Staggered price setting and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24.
    14. Jean-Philippe Cayen & Amy Corbett & Patrick Perrier, 2006. "An Optimized Monetary Policy Rule for ToTEM," Staff Working Papers 06-41, Bank of Canada.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wenzlaff, Ferdinand & Kimmich, Christian & Richters, Oliver, 2014. "Theoretische Zugänge eines Wachstumszwangs in der Geldwirtschaft," Discussion Papers 45, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    2. Freydorf, Christoph & Kimmich, Christian & Koudela, Thomas & Schuster, Ludwig & Wenzlaff, Ferdinand, 2012. "Wachstumszwänge in der Geldwirtschaft. Zwischenbericht der Wissenschaftlichen Arbeitsgruppe nachhaltiges Geld," EconStor Preprints 142471, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation: costs and benefits; Interest rates; Monetary policy framework;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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